Key Themes
- DDR4 Shortage Deepens, DDR5 Allocation Tightens: The DDR4 shortage has reached critical levels, with lead times pushing into 2026 and spot prices surging. This is forcing an accelerated migration to , which is now itself facing severe allocation constraints and steady price hikes (4%+ monthly) as manufacturers prioritize high-margin server and AI segments.
- HDD Market Under Pressure: Demand for high-capacity drives for AI and cloud is overwhelming supply, leading manufacturers like Seagate and Western Digital (WD) to demand 2-year forecasts. Simultaneously, low-capacity drives face EOL notices and lead times exceeding 20 weeks, creating a supply squeeze across the entire capacity spectrum.
- Analog & Power ICs Remain Tight: Texas Instruments (TI) and Analog Devices (ADI) are implementing broad, significant price increases and extending lead times (up to 52 weeks for some ADI parts). TI is also aggressively pushing customers to buy direct, bypassing distributors to improve margins.
- GPU & NIC Allocation Remains Strategic: Nvidia's Blackwell series continues to face extended lead times (into Q1 2026 for some models). ConnectX-7 NIC cards remain constrained due to raw material shortages, though signs of improvement are emerging. AMD’s Turin and Genoa server CPUs now face 20+ week lead times.
Product Updates
Supply Constraints and Market Shifts
- Texas Instruments is implementing a significant price increase this August, impacting over 60,000 models—20x more than the previous round in June. Affected categories include Digital Isolators, LDO Regulators, and ADCs, with price hikes ranging from 10% to 30%. Applications span industrial control and automotive sectors.
- Analog Devices has extended lead times for most Maxim series to over 30 weeks. Pull-in requests from end customers are unlikely to be fulfilled. Linear Tech products now show lead times of 36–42 weeks, particularly for analog and power management devices.
- Altera lead times have stretched to 24 weeks due to capacity constraints at Taiwanese OSAT facilities. Ordering system updates were implemented on August 15, 2025, with resolution expected within 1–2 quarters.
- NXP Semiconductor is reportedly increasing prices on RF products, impacting backlog and triggering re-quoting. Lead times for NXP's MCU series have extended from 12 weeks to 20 weeks.
- Lattice has updated lead time guidance as of late August, citing demand and supplier delays. Customers are advised to provide 9–12 month forecasts to support order planning.
- Sony's industrial sensors are in short supply. With rising industrial demand, lead times have now extended to approximately 8 months.
Increase Lead Times and EOL Notices
- Lead times for AMD's Genoa and Turin is projected from 8 to 20+ weeks across the board. Allocation for high-core-count SKUs like the 9554. 9654 and 9754 is extremely tight, with prices confirmed to be increasing.
- Intel's 10nm production (affecting 12th-14th Gen desktop and some server CPUs) remains constrained, with ETAs pushed to Q4. Small-core CPUs (N-series) are critically short, driving spot market prices up.
- Intel has issued PCNs for the EOL of several legacy Ethernet products, with last shipments scheduled for June 2026.
Shifting Focus and Allocation Changes
- Nvidia’s RTX PRO 4000/5000 Blackwell workstation GPUs are experiencing significant delays, with distribution now expected in mid-to-late October or even Q1 2026 for some models. The RTX PRO 6000 is becoming the focus for mid-tier AI deployments.
- While no official EOL notice has been issued, distributors and users widely recognize the RTX PRO 6000 as the successor, indicating the L40S series is nearing its end of life.
- Market demand for the consumer GeForce RTX 5090 is increasing, with distributors reporting sold-out allocations and rising spot prices, partly driven by speculation around its shared die with data center GPUs.
Persistent Shortages
- Lead times for Nvidia’s ConnectX-7 (MCX7) NICs are showing early signs of improvement. However, allocation remains tight, and 200G dual-port models are particularly scarce.
- Nvidia’s ConnectX-8 is available for booking with general LT 6-8 weeks with more competitive price
Production Prioritization and Capacity Shifts
- Micron has temporarily suspended all quotes for OEMs and distributors, signaling an imminent 15% price hike. Automotive-grade products is seeing price increases of up to 70%.
- Samsung has shifted its LPDDR4/4X pricing negotiations from quarterly to monthly, reflecting extreme market volatility. Contract prices have jumped from in past two months.
- Solidigm and SanDisk are planning to announce price increase for its NAND Flash products due to increase demand
Tight Allocation and Price Hikes Ahead
- 96GB & 128GB high-density DDR5 modules for AI servers are the most constrained.
- Samsung and SK Hynix are prioritizing 96GB and 128GB DDR5 modules for AI servers, leading to 20-week lead times and confirmed monthly price increases (~4%). Samsung has reportedly halted DDR5 RDIMM allocation to the open market due to on-die ECC validation issues.
- With no new production, prices for DDR4 modules continue to climb. Samsung has informed customers of a 20-30% price increase for its remaining stock. Kingston has already raised desktop DDR4 DIMM pricing by 35%.
- Micron is requiring Non-Cancelable, Non-Returnable (NCNR) purchase orders from key customers to secure future supply, a move aimed at stabilizing the volatile market. Micron has also temporarily suspended all quotes for OEMs and distributors, signaling an imminent 15% price hike
Capacity Demand Causes Alternatives
- SanDisk has announced an immediate price increase of over 10% for all channel and consumer SSD products, citing strong demand from AI, data center, and mobile segments.
- Demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs (15TB, 30TB) is increasing as customers seek alternatives to constrained high-capacity HDDs. Kioxia and Solidigm are also signaling Q4 price increases.
- Production focus on high-capacity, high-margin SSDs is leading to shortages and price hikes for lower-capacity drives (240GB, 480GB).
EOL Notices and Extended Lead Times
- Both Seagate and WD are seeing a 10% price increase, with lead times for 20TB+ drives now extending into 2026
- Seagate has stopped accepting new 1TB orders. Lead times for remaining low-capacity models exceed 22 weeks. Drives below 16TB, particularly 1TB and 2TB models, are facing EOL notices and severe allocation cuts.
Extended Lead Times and Allocation
Supply Chain Trends
- AI’s Raw Material Squeeze: The AI boom is not just consuming chips but also straining the supply of critical raw materials like gallium, germanium, low-Dk fiberglass, and HVLP copper foil, creating new bottlenecks for the broader electronics industry.
- China launches anti-dumping probe: China's Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of an anti-discrimination investigation into relevant U.S. measures targeting the country's integrated circuit sector.
Manufacturer News and Updates
- SK Hynix forecasts the market for custom HBM memory chips designed for AI will grow 30% annually until 2030. They are now integrating Infinitesima’s atomic force microscopy (AFM) metrology for HBM4E stacking to enable high yields with 16-layer hybrid bonding. [Source: Reuters]
- Intel confirmed at a recent Goldman Sachs Technology conference that it plans to launch a refresh of its Arrow Lake processors in 2026 with its true next-generation Nova Lake designs to follow along before the end of 2026. [Source: Seeking Alpha]
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