CPUs
Substrate shortage causes extended lead times at AMD
As predicted in April, we’re seeing extended open market lead times for AMD’s EPYC Rome server CPUs due to the substrate shortage. Although its successor, EPYC Milan, has launched, open market supply has been limited.
Intel’s server Xeon to see supply constraints
Intel officially announced its latest product, the 3rd Gen Ice Lake Xeon. As such, we expect its predecessors, Cascade Lake and Cascade Lake Refresh, to face supply constraints in the coming months. The transition involves new motherboards, which normally leads to supply constraints for both the predecessor and successor.
In other news, it is rumored that Intel will also be launching Ice Lake Xeon’s successor, Sapphire Rapids, in 2021. If this is true, the market will have to deal with demand for both Ice Lake Xeon and Sapphire Rapids, which may go head-to-head with AMD’s 4th Gen EPYC server, Genoa, also rumored to be launching later this year.
Prices are rising for Intel’s desktop CPUs
Open market pricing has surged up to 30% for the constrained 10th Gen Comet Lake desktop CPUs, as predicted in April. The launch of Intel’s 11th Gen Rocket Lake did not satisfy demand because of limited open market supply, leading to premium offers.
Customers should decide whether to purchase the 10th Gen Comet Lake or the 11th Gen Rocket Lake, since we foresee pricing for both getting steeper.
ICs
Ongoing shortages are worsening
Due to ongoing industry-wide supply constraints, lead times for integrated circuits have increased to 34+ weeks across the board. We do not expect the current chip shortage to recover anytime soon due to the ongoing substrate shortage and increasing demand from automotive applications.
Standard lead times are continuing to increase across automotive and industrial grade items.
Renesas fire limits supply
The factory fire that hit Renesas’ Naka factory on March 19, continues to affect various MCUs, especially the automotive series R5/R7 produced there. Because of critically limited supply, open market pricing for this series has skyrocketed. As a result, pricing for these products has increased by up to 10-15 times the standard price
Renesas had already outsourced some of its non-automotive MCUs to the Saijo Factory and other foundries. Renesas is expecting to return to its original production rate in Q3, but we anticipate it will take longer. Demand for Renesas’ UPD series has been on the rise, indicating a growing shortage. This has led to parts quickly becoming less available in the market.
MPS (Monolithic Power System) orders cannot be filled
Commercial grade product lead times continue to rise. There are 48-week lead times on series MP1471, MP2315, MP2359, MP2459, MP1584, MP2122. It is rumored that commercial grade parts are either being allocated on a monthly basis, while some deliveries are not being fulfilled at all. Automotive grade parts; however, remain available due to manufacturers shifting production to focus more on these products.
Cypress prices sharply rise
With lead times continuing to worsen, Cypress shows price increases of 30-50% on products used for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. After the Texas storm, Cypress’ NOR Flash lead times were prolonged, and have increased to 30 weeks for its PSoC-4 and FMxx series.
There are also reports that Cypress has been decommitting from existing orders and pushing deliveries back, caused by production capacity struggles.
NXP automotive parts may not recover in 2021
NXP is back online and catching up on lost production after the power outage earlier this year. According to previous reports they're allocating more production capacity to automotive products. Because NXP switched its focus, lead times for other non-automotive series have increased.
The MKxxxx series, for instance, has a lead time of 52 weeks. Despite production and delivery improvements being expected in Q2 and Q3, it is predicted that NXP’s lead times for automotive parts will continue to stretch for the remainder of 2021.
Affected series include MKExxxx, MKLxxxx, MCIMxxx, TJAxxx, industrial application MCUs; and MPXxxx pressure sensors. Other affected series include MCU 32BIT ARM CORTEX, S9S08xxx, MCIMX6xxx, LPC177xxx and LPC23xxx.
Intel’s Ethernet Controller lead times stretch
Once again, open market pricing for Intel’s Ethernet Controllers has surged up to 50%, caused by raw material shortages. We are hearing that prices won’t recover in Q2 and that it may even persist until the end of the year.
Lead times are now extending up to 18 months for Ethernet Controllers X710-BM2 and I350-AM4. This may be the new norm for Ethernet Controllers, which is why we urge customers to place orders now.
Tight supply at ST Microelectronics worsens
ST Microelectronics’ MCU demand remains strong. Lead times for STM32F2/F1/F7 series are still high at 45 weeks, while lead times for its SLT series have extended to 45-52 weeks. As supply tightens, series STM8A/8L/8S and STM32F0/F1/F3 will be subject to allocation. All production for Q3 and Q4 has been allocated. ST Micro’s series STM8S and STM32F have been hit the hardest.
In other news, ST Micro’s MEMs production capacity was reduced by 40%, affecting its MEMs accelerometer. Common parts like the LSI series are still available in the market; however, prices have increased and supply is limited.
Imaging sensor demand to continue
Growing demand for consumer tablets, smartphones, laptops, surveillance devices and healthcare devices are driving market demand higher for CMOS image sensors, which may result in a shortage soon. This is attributed to the fact these products provide higher resolution and better energy efficiency for consumer benefit.
Because lead times at ON Semi generally remain unstable, it is rumored that new orders are not currently being accepted due to a lack of supply. Lead times for the AS series, for example, have increased to 40-50 weeks compared to the standard 20-30 weeks.
The global wafer shortage and the increasing price of raw materials are also continuing to affect Sony’s production. Over the past six months, pricing for Sony’s IMX series has doubled, and supply is predicted to remain extremely tight. Customers are being advised to purchase buffer stock for ongoing projects to avoid potential line-down issues throughout the year.
Capacitors and resistors are limited
Murata is reporting current lead time increases of 14-18 weeks for resistor case sizes 0402, 0603 and 0806. Rising prices are also being reported like the 20% price increase on Murata’s BLM series.
Similarly, AVX’s tantalum capacitors have been hugely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The current closure of its El Salvador plant, paired with increased demand, has resulted in limited supply. Although lead times remain long, quoted deliveries are being met by AVX and production is slowly starting to recover.
While some lead times are at 40-42 weeks, most lead times are remaining at 28-32 weeks for now. The most affected series include TPME and TAJ.
MEMORY
Consistent memory demand depletes supply
Memory prices continued to rise in April, while customers search the open market for supply. However, overall activity has started to plateau with heightened prices appearing to give customers pause.
Nonetheless, many vendors are still reporting that tight supply will continue in Q2 and Q3, and thus prices are also expected to remain high. The most consistently demanded memory modules are still 32GB and 64GB RDIMMs, particularly for Chinese customers supporting high levels of activity in the cryptocurrency space.
DRAM and NAND demand remains strong
Overall DRAM demand is still increasing across the board, caused by an upside in expected forecasts from multiple industries. The average selling price is predicted to be higher in Q2 due to Tier 1 customer contracts being pulled in.
The lack of controller and component supply has created a push for PC customers to pull in their NAND products as soon as possible. Cloud computing hyperscalers have also increased their forecasts, which has resulted in higher selling prices for customers from suppliers. It is expected that further price increases will occur in Q3.
Mobile NAND demand has remained strong during the past year due to the increased demand for portable devices like laptops. However, the widespread shortage of ICs currently being experienced is resulting in lead times stretches.
The cryptocurrency sector is driving SSD and high-capacity HDD demand in the wake of rising inquiries and transactions, leading SSD supply to severely tighten. Allocation remains very limited, and many vendors are uncertain of lead times – even for orders already placed. Intel’s official prices are expected to increase 8-10% in Q2 with particular emphasis on the highly demanded S4510 and S4610 series. Another key component in SSD production, the controller processor, remains in shortage and is creating a bottleneck in production.
Current lead times for HDD orders have been stretched up to 13 weeks due to widespread shortages on products required for production. Higher input material costs, along with increased demand have caused prices to surge. Some vendors are anticipating a 10-20% price spike, especially for higher capacity HDDs (12TB, 14TB, 16TB).
GPUs
GPU supply struggles to meet demand
The supply of AMD’s newest GPU series, Radeon RX6000, and Nvidia’s RTX 3000 series remains incredibly tight. Nvidia continues to struggle meeting demand from multiple markets, including new laptops launched by several makers. They have continued to try to further segment the cryptocurrency market through its CMP GPUs.
Some vendors are hearing that Nvidia’s RTX 3070 supply may slightly improve in the coming weeks, though they also anticipate that prices will remain high as a result of demand outstripping supply. Moreover, Nvidia has been facing increasing input costs due to PCB and component shortages. These costs have been passed down the supply chain through higher prices.
FINISHED PRODUCTS
More Wi-Fi modules affected by shortages
There have been a high number of Intel WLAN transactions in recent weeks. In general, the Wi-Fi module supply is tight and a wider range of models are being impacted compared to March. Pricing has increased between 20-50% on some models (e.g., Intel’s Wi-Fi 6 AX200 series). This has driven some customers to spec in lower cost alternatives, such as Intel’s Dual Band Wireless-AC 7265 (below $10) in place of the AX200 series (above $20).
LCD manufacturers face inconsistent material supply
There is still a shortage of 14” and 15.6” displays with regular price increases. Manufacturers are still accepting orders based on forecasted demand from customers; however, they are not guaranteeing allocations due to the inconsistent supply of raw materials required for production.
