The Greensheet: February 2020

IC

Taiyo Yuden implements new part numbering system
By April 2022, Taiyo Yuden will have a new part numbering system on all series and product lines. With the expansion of Taiyo Yuden product lineup and entry into new markets, available letters will become exhausted in the near future.

The new part numbers will affect new and existing products. The system is based on a common rule, which will facilitate the understanding of part numbers and product usage and will allow customers to search for products more easily.

Demand for 5G applications causing DRAM pricing to increase
DRAM official pricing across Micron, Samsung and Hynix increased this month, and we are expecting the trend to continue due to the increasing demand on 5G applications and automotive.

In response, customers are shifting to Taiwan-based manufacturers, Winbond, Macronix and Nanya. There are a number of reasons including they are a cheaper alternative and have better delivery lead times than Micron, Samsung and Hynix; Samsung and Hynix are focusing more on the production of CMOS imaging sensors; and demand is increasing for 5G base stations.

Nanya’s official DRAM pricing is still quite stable – at least for now. It’s anticipated that the other Taiwan-based manufacturers will have stable prices as well.

CPU

Focus on 10^th Generation production causing shortages on Whiskey Lake, Coffee Lake and Kaby Lake Refresh
Supply for Comet Lake and Ice Lake processors has been stable as production of these families have been prioritized. This has caused more than a few instances of supply gaps on Whiskey Lake, Coffee Lake and Kaby Lake Refresh since the first week of February.

As the migration into 10^th generation progresses, distributors are expecting that from March onward, there will be more availability on 8^th and 9^th generation mobiles. A reported improvement in yield for 14nm processors – from 1000 DPPM to 500 DPPM – will help with these series as well.

Server market not showing any signs of recovery
As compared to the PC market slowdown, the server market is swiftly continuing with high premiums and short supply for Cascade Lake CPU. Because of the increase in e-commerce sales, gaming activities, online education, demand for global server capacity has remained strong.

Supply for the 42XX, 62XX and 82XX has remained highly constrained and the lofty premiums reported last month have been persistent. The 42xx series caused the most issues for customers and suppliers alike – some vendors still have not received delivery lead times from Intel.

STORAGE

Natural disaster spikes HDD market demand and price
In January, there was a volcanic eruption in the Philippines that caused shipment delays with HDDs, which are mostly produced there. The eruption caused problems with air flights being cancelled or postponed, and workers were evacuated from the area in case of further eruptions or earthquakes.

RTX2080Ti supply is unlikely to improve until mid-2020
Since the start of 2020, supply for Nvidia GeForce RTX2080Ti cards has continued to be strained. The increasing server business has driven market demand for GPUs, of which the RTX2080Ti is the most requested. Meanwhile, we have heard that Nvidia is preparing to launch for the new generation of GeForce, which is expected in Q2.

It is unlikely there will be more production resources invested to improve the supply for the chipsets. We have observed that the market price is continuing to go up another 5-10% while lead times are stretching from the normal 2-3 week to 4-6 weeks. The overall market supply will remain tight until mid-2020.

MEMORY

Memory backlog slowly being delivered
Memory manufacturers are starting to fill backorders placed during Q4 2019. However, the average quantity is only 10% of what was initially ordered. The manufacturers are giving inaccurate and inconsistent forecasting of available stock leaving distribution seemingly in the dark on exactly what modules they will receive, the quantity and estimated time to receive remaining balance of order.

Prices and lead times Continue Upswing for DIMMs market
Pricing for DIMMs is continuing to increase by an average of 3-5% per month. The components with the highest increase are DDR4 32GB and 64GB 2933MHz. In response, many customers are securing buffer stock due to forecasted shortages.

In addition, lead times for server DIMMs are stretching to 3 months. Large customers from the USA and China have pulled in substantial orders over the past two months, which are expected to impact lead times throughout Q2.