From the Source’s Mouth is Fusion Worldwide’s analysis of semiconductor manufacturers’ quarterly earnings call transcripts. This report provides insights into upcoming demand, capacity, and supply trends based on market information directly from the source. The most recent update features the following manufacturers.
This report is updated throughout the quarter. Below are the latest takeaways from Q4 earnings calls, which began on January 18th and run through March 1st, 2024.
Key Takeaways
Nvidia Outperforms Competitors and Sets the Tone for AI
Nvidia continues to build on its AI success as Q4 data center revenue grew 265% YOY. Demand for the company’s Hopper GPU computing platform and InfiniBand end-to-end networking led to higher profits.
Consumer internet companies have been early adopters of AI and represent one of Nvidia’s largest customer categories. From search to e-commerce to social media and entertainment, AI is being used for deep learning-based recommendation systems across the globe.
One of the most notable trends over the past year was the adoption of AI within automotive, healthcare, and financial services. Applications within these verticals include autonomous driving, drug discovery, and low-latency machine learning for fraud detection or robotics. These developments underpinned the demand and success of Nvidia’s products.
Pro Visualization revenue increased a modest 11% QOQ but was up 105% YOY thanks to the RTX Ada architecture GPUs. Nvidia’s gaming segment saw flat sequential results but an increase of 56% YOY. Solid consumer demand for the GeForce RTX GPUs during the holidays contributed to this increase.
Comparatively, automotive had the lowest performance, with only 8% sequential growth and a decline of 4% YOY. Despite the YOY decline, this was the first time revenue for the fiscal year crossed the $1B mark, supported by the continued adoption of the NVIDIA DRIVE platform.
A Tipping Point in the New Computing Era
Nvidia stated that the “world has reached the tipping point of a new computing era” as data center infrastructure rapidly transitions from general-purpose to accelerated computing. Companies have begun to build the next generation of modern data centers, referred to as AI factories, which will refine raw data and produce valuable intelligence in the era of generative AI.
To support the continued expansion of AI, Nvidia is ramping up the H200 to achieve initial shipments in Q2. Demand for this product is significant, as the H200 nearly doubles the inference performance of the already popular H100.
In other product news, Nvidia announced the GeForce RTX 40 Super Series family of GPUs at CES. This product will have significant demand throughout 2024 as it delivers enhanced gaming performance with generative AI capabilities. Nvidia also announced a wave of new RTX 40 Series AI laptops, which will generate further demand within the consumer industry.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Softening Demand in Automotive and Industrial Brings Down Q4 Results
Sequential results for overall and individual market profits declined. Expansion in data center computing was offset by weaker demand in wired and wireless communications, driven by lower wireless infrastructure deployments.
Demand for FPGAs expanded thanks to new product families, with additional launches planned for 2024. Lattice plans to expand its AI application portfolio, as preexisting hardware, software, and automotive ADAS systems are already tracking well with AI customers.
Lattice Places Recovery Hopes on New Product Ramps in Second Half of 2024
Seasonal corrections and demand headwinds will impact all end markets in Q1. Q2 results will be more substantial, but recovery will depend on Q1 emerging trends. New product ramps, like those within the Nexus device families, will be vital to success. AI-optimized servers in data centers and AI-enabled PCs represent key growth opportunities in 2024.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Underwhelming IoT Demand Causes Overall Decline in Revenue
Adjustments in the IoT segment resulted in a 2.2% drop in revenue. Additional headwinds also stemmed from increased R&D expenses related to SoCs and IGBTs for automotive. While there were some predictions that the UWA strike would
Automotive and Data Center Markets to Expand in 2024
Automotive will grow in Q1 as Renesas ramps up channel inventory. MCUs and SoCs will remain mainstays in demand. Content growth will be slower than past levels due to demand fluctuations and headwinds in EV markets, but it will expand.
Industrial infrastructure and IoT will continue to see inventory adjustments in Q1. Excess supply may be a lingering concern in Q2, but it depends on the shape of the recovery.
Data centers and AI currently account for a small portion of revenue, but this will expand as Renesas catches up to the competition with new products. Data center and AI-related sales will focus on power semiconductors, controllers, and switches. The other big investment area will be the DDR5 transition, which will cause variations in the memory business as AI settles on new operational standards.
Within the PC market, Renesas believes the market is already at the bottom, but demand will fluctuate based on cyclicality.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Weak Demand and High Inventory Characterize 2023
Silicon Laboratories' business segments declined in Q4 due to weak demand and high inventory levels. Home and life business saw the most significant decline. However, Silicon Laboratories gained market share in the solar industry with greater demand for integrated solutions in wireless activity and compute products related to solar panels.
All three product groups in industrial and commercial weakened in Q4, with the broad industrial category experiencing the largest dip. Smart cities and commercial product groups had higher sequential revenue for the entire year, driven primarily by demand for electronic shelf labels and metering.
Home and Life Projected to Recover Faster Than Industrial and Commercial
Despite the near-term weakness, Silicon Laboraties predicts demand recovery in Q1. Forecasts indicate that home and life are further through their correction cycle than industrial and commercial.
The demand for connected health devices is multiplying, driven by increased chronic illnesses and diseases. Connected health will drive demand in smart home and life markets, as evidenced by customer engagement at CES. Another trend in this market is the activity around matter-enabled devices, which support smart home products like switches, thermostats, and outlets.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Automotive and Industrial Decline While Aerospace, Defense, and Medical Expand
Price and order volume for semiconductors fell in Q4 as demand declined in the automotive and industrial sectors. Consumer, computer, and telecom market demand was weak all year, with minimal improvements in Q4.
In automotive, there was increasing interest in electronic content for internal combustion engines, hybrids, e-vehicles, and greater vehicle production as the supply chain stabilized. As automotive OEMs reevaluated the pace of EV adoption, there was an uptick in volume for hybrid vehicle production. Industrial saw minimal growth, which was concentrated on infrastructure projects.
Aerospace and defense, as well as medical, had more robust demand. Medical diagnostic equipment and implantable device shipments resumed after a delay in Q3.
Passive Component Recovery Expected to Outpace Semiconductor Market
Inventory corrections will last through the first half of 2024. Some end markets may see improvements earlier, notably aerospace and defense, but it will depend on distributor adjustments. Passives are expected to recover faster than semiconductors based on Q4 order flow.
Medical may see a more concentrated increase thanks to the Chinese government’s plan to upgrade hospital medical equipment.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Automotive, Enterprise Data, Storage and Computing Markets Prove Resilient
Automotive, enterprise data, storage and computing revenue increased on a yearly basis. Automotive demand centered on integrated applications for ADAS, digital cockpit, and lighting. Enterprise data revenue grew thanks to higher sales of power management solutions for AI. While an increase in sales of products for notebooks drove results for storage and computing.
Communications, industrial, and consumer revenue declined in 2023. The declines were the result of slower sales in 4G and 5G infrastructure, applications for industrial automation, security, and power sources. Meanwhile, the lower consumer results stemmed from broad market weakness across all segments.
Enterprise Data Emerges as Main Growth Driver for Q1
Despite a choppy environment going into 2024, MPS’s outlook is stable. While AI is expected to drive demand for enterprise data products, the competition is becoming steep. MPS’s market share is expected to decline slightly as other manufacturers introduce products to target this demand. However, additional tailwinds will come from incremental positive demand for CPU data center solutions.
While growth in the automotive market is still forecasted to continue in Q1, it will slow compared to previous quarters as customers are now dealing with excess supply.
In terms of inventory, MPS has carefully managed levels to keep them healthy. However, the company has begun to increase its wafer starts ahead of a potential upside in demand over the next few quarters.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Inventory Corrections Cause Widespread Decline Across Market Segments
Automotive, green industrial power, power and sensor systems, and connected secure systems revenue decreased because of customers’ short-term inventory management efforts. Connected secure systems saw the steepest revenue decline due to demand weakness, which was widespread across applications and product groups. High inventory levels and the corresponding need for a depletion period will continue to characterize the consumer compute communication, IoT, and security markets in the near term.
Regarding positive trends, smartphone components saw a slight uptick, indicating some light at the end of the tunnel for the consumer segment.
Shrinking Lead Times and Emerging Opportunities Amidst Weak Demand
Lead times are shrinking, leading customers to adopt just-in-time ordering behavior and consequently limiting visibility in the timeframe for recovery. Fiscal 2024 will be a transition year, but the scope for an eventual recovery may be steeper than usual as inventories deplete and interest rates come down.
E-mobility, ADAS, and electrical architecture drive demand in the automotive market. Despite forecasts indicating that the number of cars produced in 2024 will be flat or down sequentially, China is providing opportunities for EV expansion as demand in this market is the most robust.
However, there are tailwinds for success in other global markets as countries become further dedicated to meeting emission targets, prices for battery raw materials decline, and EVs become more financially accessible. Infineon’s automotive MCU portfolio will help support these trends, as the new AURIX family is already helping the company gain market share.
Demand for industrial drives will weaken further. Similarly, the appetite for green industrial power devices like home appliances, heating and cooling solutions, and ventilation systems has dampened thanks to high-interest rates. Despite this general softness, applications related to decarbonization, energy storage systems, grid and charging infrastructure, and transportation remain strong. Government initiatives partially drive this trend. That said, increased inventories in the photovoltaic value chain will temporarily slow down semiconductor demand for PV inverters, even in the face of continuous growth of installations.
AI is also a key demand driver for numerous industries, as it is increasingly moving to the edge. Infineon is taking advantage of this development by extending its MCU portfolio with a new edge family of products.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Automotive and Industrial Demand Softens While Computing Rebounds
Pockets of softness in the automotive market led to a slowdown that coincided with inventory corrections, although design win momentum stayed strong. The most robust demand trends were ADAS, smart cabin, telematic, and infotainment. The adoption of USB Type-C re-drivers, DisplayPort active crossbar MUX, and MIPI switches has increased significantly in the rear-seat entertainment, smart cockpit, ADAS, and active cable designed for automotive applications.
Diodes launched its N-channel MOSFETs in Q4. These MOSFETs are tailored for applications in battery chargers, onboard chargers, high-efficiency DC-DC converters, motor drivers, and traction inverters.
Industrial demand suffered due to excess supply challenges and weakness, although significant progress was made on product initiatives. Q4 design wins included a range of essential components like HDMI, USB Type-C DisplayPort, MIDP re-drivers, and MUX switches in commercial displays, drums, and robotics.
Computing market results were flat QOQ as inventory levels normalized. Communication and consumer markets experienced the same trend, although with a slightly better revenue recovery.
Forecasts Indicate Positive Momentum to Begin with Q3
Chinese New Year’s impact on Q1 demand was slight, causing a minimal dip in computing and consumer market revenue. Further recovery will begin in the second quarter, stretching into the second half of the year. Inventory rebalancing will continue into Q1 for automotive and industrial, resulting in forecasts that demand will be low in both markets.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Automotive and Communication Infrastructure Markets Grow YOY
Q4 revenue modestly exceeded guidance during an uncertain demand environment and the intentional strategy of limiting inventory in the channel by carrying more supply on NXP’s balance sheet. Industrial and IoT results reflected the tight channel management on a YOY basis, as intermittent weakness impacted demand. However, the low point for this market was in Q1, as results did improve moderately on a QOQ basis. Demand trends in mobile were weak due to inventory digestion in the handset market.
Alternatively, both automotive and communication infrastructure markets increased YOY thanks to higher pricing. The strength in communication infrastructure also came from specific demand trends surrounding secured card and tracking solutions and last-time buys of select legacy network processor solutions.
NXP Predicts Challenging First Half of 2024
NXP provided a modest outlook for Q1 because of typical seasonality and the ongoing impact of normalizing on-hand inventory. Input costs will improve YOY, so the company predicts pricing will remain flat for 2024.
In terms of demand, automotive and communication infrastructure are expected to decline. Both industrial and IoT, as well as mobile, are anticipated to increase YOY but will dip sequentially. Growth will resume in more consumer-oriented industrial, IoT, and mobile segments, but it will be gradual.
Regarding the decline in automotive and core industrial, these markets entered a multi-quarter inventory correction phase in Q2 2023. This trend will continue through the year's first half.
Automotive Leads Demand, While Industrial and IoT Industry Lags
The best-performing market segment thus far is automotive, as radar, electrification, and the S32 processor family for the software-defined vehicle are tracking ahead of plan.
Due to the significant cyclical end-market weakness and disciplined approach to managing distribution channels, industrial and IoT are trading below the expected growth range. Mobile is also performing below expectations because wideband accelerated growth is slower than anticipated, thanks to the Android handset market weakness. However, ultra-wideband traction in the automotive market is progressing well.
RF power amplifiers within communications are performing below growth expectations due to weaker base station deployments and faster-than-expected OEM transition to gallium nitride from LDMOS technology.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Intelligent Power and Sensing Demand Leads to Record Automotive Results
The automotive sector had a record year, with a 29% YOY revenue increase driven by demand for intelligent power and sensing. Notably, 8-megapixel image sensor revenue nearly doubled YOY, indicating increasing demand for higher ADAS system resolution.
Onsemi maintained its top position in automotive LED lighting, inductive, and ultrasonic sensing, and plans to strengthen this position with an upcoming analog and mixed-signal platform. IGBT revenue nearly doubled over the last two years, and silicon carbide (SiC) revenue also increased due to strong automotive and energy infrastructure demand.
However, industrial market demand weakened due to macroeconomic factors and a slowdown in industrial activity. Demand and profits declined in advanced solutions and intelligent sensing due to softness in compute, mobile, and industrial markets.
Silicon Carbide Market Expected to Double in 2024
Long-term service agreement (LTSA) clients anticipate softening demand across all markets due to ongoing inventory digestion and slowing end demand. This softness is expected to continue through at least Q1 of 2024. Market reports project a 30% to 40% growth for (SiC) this year, with onsemi expecting the market to double in 2024 despite varying forecasts. The company's competitive advantage in silicon power, IGBT, and MOSFET technologies positions it well to capitalize on electrification trends and expand its market share across all levels of electric vehicles.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Declining Demand Pushes Microchip to Begin Two-Week Production Pause
Net sales declined in Q4, and Microchip’s inventory increased due to customer’s requests to delay deliveries. Demand was weak, which caused sales for mixed-signal MCUs and analog devices to drop below expectations.
Due to 2023 business challenges, Microchip has suspended its PSP program, which required a noncancelable backlog in exchange for priority supply. Microchip has also paused its internal capacity expansion until the severity of the down cycle in the semiconductor industry is resolved. The company’s factories worldwide will run at lower utilization rates and begin taking up to two shutdown weeks in the coming quarters to help control inventory levels.
Revenue Forecasts Cast a Wide Net Due to High Volatility and Low Visibility
Microchip provided a more extensive guidance range for Q1 revenue, reflecting the macro uncertainty and low business visibility. While pricing remains stable, end-market demand is weak across the board. There is some strength in aerospace and defense, with commercial aviation staying steady, but demand is not significant and represents more of a pocket than an overall trend.
As customers continue to work through heightened inventory levels, there may be an overcorrection in the latter half of the year. However, this will depend on how quickly supply digestion can take place.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
ADAS Dominates E-Mobility Sales in Q4
Automotive demand was strong in Q4 as sales expanded by 18% YOY. Electromobility (e-mobility) sales also increased. However, industrial and consumer spending declined due to customers strictly managing inventory intake.
ADAS represented the majority of e-mobility sales, with EVs acting as the fastest-growing segment. While e-mobility remains a key strategic focus, nearly half of the company's automotive sales are in applications like ICE powertrain and safety, comfort, and convenience-related applications.
From a product perspective, power products outperformed magnetic sensor sales. Demand across Allegro's global markets was well balanced, with China purchasing most products.
Allegro's Strategic Positioning for Automotive Trends
Calendar year 2024 is estimated to have stable automotive demand with continued growth in EVs, including battery electric vehicles and full hybrids. EV adoption varies by geography, but the mounting momentum in this market is promising for long-term demand.
Allegro's content in total hybrid vehicles is similar to battery electric vehicles, and their solutions support all vehicle powertrains, so the company is poised to benefit from whatever kind of platforms OEMs invest in.
Within e-mobility, while demand is strong, tiers and contract manufacturers are focused on paring back inventory from 8 to 10 weeks to 4 to 6 weeks. Based on the company's current view and historical cycles, Allegro estimates that the inventory digestion that has impacted numerous industries will continue for a few quarters. Related to Allegro's business partners, the company expects Q1 of fiscal 2025 to be their trough quarter.
E-Mobility Dominates Design Win Activity, With Added Succes in Data Center
This quarter, Allegro's design win activity was a testament to long-term projections within the EV and industrial markets as over 50% were related to e-mobility.
Within automotive, the company received multiple programs from a leading Japanese OEM for an EV platform. This entailed current sensors for onboard chargers, AC inverters, and magnetic position sensors for electronic power steering systems.
Allegro also received multi-solution design wins for EV powertrains and EPS systems with a leading automotive OEM based in China. Furthermore, alongside the demand for more efficient data centers, the company is working on several design wins for motor drivers with a major OEM for cooling, high-performance AI servers using traditional port fabs, and liquid cooling.
Other design wins included projects for clean energy applications related to current and isolation sensor technology.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
SSD Demand Rebounds and Consumer Industry Supply Normalizes
Activity in Qorvo’s key business segments increased in Q4. SSDs for PC and enterprise markets experienced a rebound with strong demand for solid-state PA products. Defense and aerospace demand also progressed, with domestic and international customers driving demand for ground-based radar systems.
The demand environment for mobile WiFi is improving with the normalization of Android channel inventories. Wolfspeed also began shipments to support the spring 2024 flagship smartphone launch by the leading Android smartphone OEM.
Overall, Qorvo successfully reduced its net inventory balance over the Q4 period. Factory utilization is improving, and the impact of underutilization in factory-related variances continues to moderate.
Secular Developments Driving Aerospace and Defense Business
The cost of carrying higher levels of inventories will impact financial results for Q1 but Qorvo expects to sell most of its excess by the second half of the calendar year.
Trends surrounding the transition of mechanical systems to active electronics scanning systems will drive demand for aerospace and defense. The popularity surrounding this movement will have the trickle-down effect of increased activity surrounding advanced systems-level radiofrequency solutions.
In addition to leading the upgrade cycle for infrastructure, Qorvo is extending its reach in the consumer industry via wearables and other consumer products. As a first step, Qorvo recently partnered with a leading Android OEM to provide PMIC chipsets with multiple placements for wearables and chargers. Inventory consumption is still underway within the cellular base station market, and demand conditions will be soft through 2024.
New applications for ultra-wideband in automotive, including presence detection and other radar-based sensors, are anticipated to drive demand and build on Qorvo’s recent innovations, including an in-vehicle car access platform and a flagship Android smartphone launch.
Qorvo Unveils Latest Product Offerings and Partnerships
Qorvo demonstrated its wide array of enterprise and connected home solutions at CES. In addition to consumer solutions, the company has also debuted automotive products. These announcements included:
Qorvo also received the first production order related to force-sensing touch sensors for an automotive supplier supporting a leading career-based OEM.
Additionally, Qorvo recently announced a definitive agreement to acquire Boston-based Anokiwave. Anokiwave is a leading supplier of high-performance integrated silicon ICs for intelligent, active array antennas. This partnership will expand Qorvo’s offerings for defense and aerospace, SATCOM, and 5G applications.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Mohawk Valley Outperforms Expectations While Success in EVs Expands
Most of Wolfspeed’s device growth came from the ramp-up in Mohawk Valley. Mohawk Valley will need to offset the weakness in the industrial and energy markets moving forward, as Q4 demand declined following China’s weak macroeconomic environment. However, EV demand was healthy in Q4, growing 30% QOQ, which will likely stay consistent in Q1.
Despite the near-term weakness, Wolfspeed’s design wins highlighted the long-term strength of their product portfolio. There was a record conversion of $2.9B in design wins with 28 different unique EV models and industrial and energy applications. Wolfspeed now has design wins for 28 unique EV models. The company is the primary source for 27 of the 28 models.
EV Transitions Slow as Weakness Continues for Industrial and Energy Markets
The transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles is progressing slower than initially forecasted. While this has not impacted Wolfspeed's Radio Frequency (RF) business, it has slowed the early stages of adoption for silicon carbide (SiC) devices. As long as demand holds steady, these new car models will be introduced in the market in the next few years.
The impact of the industrial and energy softness will persist until the second half of the calendar year. Much of the product slated to ship in these markets has been repurposed to other pipelines, aiding in Wolfspeed's ability to work through inventory.
Materials revenue will be flat moving forward, as all additional wafers from Building 10 will go to the Mohawk Valley Fab.
Capacity Expansion to Support Automotive and Industrial Verticals
Underutilization charges continue to weigh on Wolfspeed's overall results. Despite these constraints, Wolfspeed is confident that it will reach the 20% utilization goal for the Mohawk Valley Fab, further supporting the facility's revenue ramp. There is ample runway to not only meet but exceed original utilization targets from Building 10 on the Durham campus, as they are already consistently producing high-yielding 200-millimeter wafers out of this facility.
Wolfspeed also received the IATF automotive certification at Mohawk Valley, an industry standard to ship to OEMs and Tier 1s.
Furthermore, the installation of crystal growers at the JP in Siler City began in early February. Furnaces will begin qualifying in September, with boule production starting in Siler City by the end of 2024.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Higher Memory Prices and Inventory Normalization Influence Q4 Results
Higher memory prices and sales of premium display products led to revenue growth in Q4. Products that experienced concentrated demand were HBM DDR5, LPDDR5X, and UFS 4. The strength in the memory market, combined with the production discipline in 2023, accelerated the inventory corrections in DRAM and NAND. In particular, the DRAM business returned to profitability thanks to an increase in average selling prices (ASPs).
Inventory corrections also influenced the smartphone, server, PC, and mobile markets. Smartphone shipments fell in Q4 thanks to rising competition in the consumer market during year-end seasonality, but restocking revenue did increase.
Further recovery of the semiconductor component industry will be closely tied to future smartphone sales trends.
2024 Forecasts Point to Recovery for Memory Market and IT Demand
Memory market conditions and IT-related demand will recover further in 2024 as AI drives activity for high-bandwidth memory servers and SSDs. Moderate improvements will begin in the year's first half, with more significant improvements in the second half of 2024.
PC and mobile markets recovered momentum in Q4, but future growth will concentrate on commercial PCs and flagship smartphones thanks to on-device AI adoption. The normalization of chip prices and higher financing costs will limit growth.
Phone replacement cycles are approaching, boosting the consumer market. As customers upgrade to devices with the latest health-related features, another wave of demand for wearables is anticipated. As demand for smartphones and PCs gradually recovers, the foundry market is expected to approach 2022 levels.
Demand for servers and storage has been relatively sluggish but shows signs of turning around. It will likely take another one to two quarters to see a full recovery in demand. Meanwhile, regarding industry supply, the growth of cutting-edge products is expected to be constrained, leading to increased market activity.
Samsung Targets Trends in DRAM and NAND with Innovative Offerings
Samsung is introducing the industry's highest capacity 32-gigabit DDR5 based on 1B nanometer. This product, combined with ramping up their mass-volume business for next-generation HBM3E promptly and accelerating the transition to 3E12i in the second half of the year, will further solidify Samsung's position as a leading HBM company.
For NAND, Samsung entered the mobile QAC market for the first time, responding to customer's needs for high-density mobile storage. This move made Samsung a market leader by drawing attention to the early market for Gen5 SSD in the generative AI era.
Expansion Plans to Further Support HBM and DDR5
Samsung is currently building out infrastructure in its Pyeongtaek facility, including preparing clean rooms for mid-to-long-term demand and increasing R&D investments. In particular, the company is expanding production capacity for HBM, DDR5, and other advanced nodes.
Samsung also increased its annual capital expenditure to allow for more growth in advanced EUV nodes of 5-nanometer and below technology. The increase in investment will also support future infrastructure at the Taylor Fab.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Handset and Automotive Demand Trends Exceed Expectations
Q4 demand trends focused on handsets and automotive, which delivered revenues above the high end of guidance. Android handset revenue from Chinese OEMs exceeded expectations, growing more than 35% sequentially. On-device generative AI is also driving new demand for premium smartphones.
Automotive revenue increased thanks to developments within ADAS and the desire for digital cockpit-connected services enabled by AI.
Normalization of Inventory Channels to Benefit All End Markets in 2024
Seasonality will impact handset revenues, but Android inventories have normalized, which should be a tailwind for this market segment. Premium and high-tier handsets with more computing power are the fastest-growing markets in this vertical. Qualcomm is positioned to take advantage of this development with its custom CPU, the Qualcomm Orion CPU, coming to mobiles in the near future.
Qualcomm continues to believe that industrial edge devices with connectivity, high-performance computing, and on-device AI will become one of the largest opportunities fueled by the secular trends of digital transformation. One key area of focus is to enable customers to unlock the potential of gen AI at the enterprise using chipset solutions.
From an IoT entry perspective, stabilization on the consumer side has increased and this segment will resume growth in 2024. Overall inventory channels are expected to normalize in the second half of the fiscal year, and all end markets will benefit from that development. Industrial and edge networking are now feeling the effects of excess supply.
Inventory on the consumer side of the IoT industry has stabilized. Qualcomm was among the first to call out the weakness appearing in IoT during 2023, and that has now transitioned to impact industrial and edge networking.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Broadband and Connectivity Segments Experience Significant YOY Declines
Infrastructure suffered from a downturn in demand for Q4 but remained a highlight of fiscal 2023 due to long-term strength. All MaxLinear’s other segments suffered similar fates in Q4 as demand suffered across all segments, with broadband down 66% YOY and connectivity down 82% YOY. The company is still managing significantly high levels of inventory.
Product Launches to Drive Recovery in Infrastructure and Connectivity
Long-term demand projections are robust, but MaxLinear expects all market segments to be down in Q1. Market headwinds from the past year in broadband and connectivity are likely to become tailwinds as customers continue their inventory rationalization.
Despite a downturn in Q4 demand for infrastructure products, MaxLinear remains bullish on the high-speed optical data center infrastructure market. New products across infrastructure and connectivity will drive the recovery in demand. Launches will focus on high-speed optical data center interconnects, wireless access, enterprise storage accelerators, enterprise Ethernet and multi-gigabit PON broadband access and Wi-Fi connectivity.
The ongoing rollout of telecommunication 5G wireless access infrastructure also serves as a long-term demand driver, as it will expand activity surrounding modems and RF transceivers. MaxLinear expects to see increased demand for the Panther III Series of hardware storage accelerators and increasing deployments of higher speed low latency NVMe SSD drives based on legacy software-based data compression technology phase-outs.
MaxLinear is also targeting demand for power efficiency, performance, and reduced latency with its latest products. The Wi-Fi 7 is anticipated to have significant enough demand to drive the average selling price higher.
Industrial forecasts are mixed due to lack of visibility into the amount of inventory on end-customer’s books.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Widespread Declines in Semiconductor Demand Impacts Broad Market Revenue
Skyworks' broad market revenue declined in Q4 due to the downturn in demand across the semiconductor landscape. The wireless infrastructure, automotive, and industrial industries suffered the most as they continued to weather inventory corrections amidst the low point in demand. Within the consumer market, smartphone verticals returned to growth after several quarters of navigating excess supply.
Opportunities in Infrastructure, Cloud, Data Center, and Enterprise Networking
Skyworks hopes AI will drive demand in stagnant markets. In particular, AI should reinvigorate the consumer industry, as the growth potential of AI on smartphones will be a primary unit driver. This trend will take some time to materialize, which is leading to flat forecasts for mobile, with only a slight increase in March.
AI-enabled workloads will also drive cloud and data center upgrades, opening opportunities within the data center and industrial markets. However, infrastructure, cloud, data center, and enterprise networking are still navigating inventory corrections.
Connectivity will remain a robust trend for IoT as the transition from WiFi 6 into WiFi 6E and 7 solutions drives secular growth. Demand for tablets, wearables, and home connectivity will consequently increase.
Inventory correction in the automotive and industrial sectors will be less persistent but persist until at least the end of Q1. EV and power resolution solutions will be the two main areas of growth.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
GPU and CPU Demand Offsets Headwinds in Gaming and Embedded Markets
Data center and client segment revenue expanded but was partially offset by lower revenue in embedded and gaming segments. Data center growth resulted from rising demand for AMD Instinct GPUs and fourth-generation AMD EPYC CPU sales. Demand was similarly robust for AMD's 3rd Generation EPYC Processor portfolio and the Ryzen 7000 Series CPUs. Embedded business is still struggling with excess supply.
The overall demand environment for the cloud market remained soft, although server CPU revenue increased thanks to North American Hyperscalers expanding 4th Gen EPYC Processor deployments.
Within gaming, there was lower semiconductor-related demand, but revenue was buoyed by an uptick in Radeon GPU sales. Gaming graphic demand was the healthiest segment, driven explicitly by the Radeon 6000 and 7000 series.
Data Center Trends Stay Strong While Inventory Corrections Impact Softer Markets
The seasonal decline in server sales will be offset by AMD’s data center GPU ramp-ups. 2024 will be the beginning of a multi-year AI adoption cycle, which will cause the market for data center AI accelerators to grow by approximately $400B by 2027. AMD will capture market share within this arena with its multi-generation Instinct GPU roadmap and open-source ROCm software strategy.
AMD also sees growth opportunities within the client business, especially with the planned launch of the next wave of Zen 5 CPUs. CPU demand is trending positively, as many customers have already adopted EPYC CPUs for inferencing workloads.
Alternatively, overall embedded product demand will be soft in the first half of the year as customers continue to normalize inventory levels. Inventory corrections will similarly impact demand in gaming.
AMD Targets AI Demand with Its Latest Innovations
Building off the success in the Data Center, AMD launched the MI300 accelerator family in December with support from multiple large cloud providers, all the major OEMs, and leading AI developers. AMD also shipped most of the Instinct MI300A accelerators for the El Capitan supercomputer, which will become the world's fastest supercomputer once it comes online later this year.
For the client segment, the Ryzen 8000 series notebooks and desktop processors dropped in January and have been a success thus far. The launch included the Ryzen 8040 Mobile series, delivering up to 60% more AI performance compared to prior generations. The next-gen Strix processors are also expected to deliver more than three times the AI performance of AMD’s Ryzen 7040 series processors. Ryzen-embedded processes will also be popular amongst customers building industrial automation, machine vision, robotics, and edge server applications.
With its new Versal Prime adaptive SoCs, AMD also targets the aerospace, test and measurement, health care, and communications markets. These products deliver industry-first support for DDR5 memory and increased DSP capability.
By the Numbers
Key Takeaways
Inventory Corrections Cause a Downturn in Demand and Revenue
Sanmina’s profits were impacted by inventory corrections, with additional headwinds coming from low demand across the company’s business segments. These segments encompass integrated manufacturing solutions as well as components, products, and services. Soft market demand was especially concentrated in the medical, communications, and cloud enterprise sectors.
Upgrades to Cloud Infrastructure on the Horizon
Forecasts indicate revenue will be flat QOQ, with improvements beginning in the latter half of the fiscal year. Cloud, defense and aerospace, medical digital health, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and industrial and optical packaging will drive future growth.
The communications industry is still navigating major inventory corrections, so recovery in this segment will be mixed. The worst of the corrections in communication equipment have likely concluded. Cloud demand is gaining momentum, as numerous networking customers are interested in adopting cloud AI platforms. Upgrades to cloud infrastructure will serve as an added tailwind.
Investments to Watch: Lithography
As the implications of the tech war between the U.S. and China spread, semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been caught in the crossfire. Lithography equipment, the focus for several U.S. regulations, is becoming increasingly important. The semiconductor lithography equipment market is estimated to be worth $26.48B and is forecasted to expand to $37.81B by 2029.
Consequently, Sanmina is investing in lithography to reach its operating margin goals and increase profitability. It has aligned with a few European partners for lithography equipment and precision machining.
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The Impact of DRAM and NAND Price Increases on Q4 Revenue
SK Hynix focused on enhancing its profitability in Q4 by increasing selling prices for DRAM and NAND, with NAND costs rising over 40%. An added headwind came from increased demand for HBM and high-density DDR5.
Additional headwinds came from the ongoing recovery in IT demand and China driving growth in mobile memory. Mobile memory market strength drove sales of e-mobile and eSSD products. These developments helped the company recover previously recognized inventory valuation losses.
Navigating the Memory Market’s Upward Trajectory
SK Hynix is targeting AI as it forecasts this technology will drive change within the memory market. Despite seasonality impacting demand, prices are expected to continue rising in Q1, with DRAM experiencing a faster uptick than NAND. This trend has already begun, as DRAM inventories are now anticipated to recover within the year’s first half, while NAND supply will recover by the second half of 2024.
Customer demand has newly rebounded for legacy products, contributing to forecasts that legacy product inventories will be lean for both customers and suppliers by year-end. Furthermore, production is pivoting to support higher-end products like HBM and DDR5, which will cause more acute constraints for legacy products and likely even higher demand as customer inventories run low.
PC and mobile phone shipments are expected to grow as delayed PC replacements and Windows upgrades are now underway.
Positive growth in PC and mobile phone shipments is anticipated after two consecutive years of negative growth. The change in demand is stemming from delayed PC replacements and Windows upgrades. PC and mobile customers are already beginning to build inventory after depleting their levels during the low period of demand in 2023.
Smartphones are expected to benefit from similar developments and could receive an added wave of demand if AI phones and applications enter the market. The proliferation of AI is forecasted to drive a similar gradual recovery for the server market. A recovery in investment for general-purpose servers is also likely.
SK Hynix’s Next-Generation Memory Module
SK Hynix plans to expand its high-density solution offerings, including a 128-gigabyte DDR5 and up to 256-gigabyte modules. The company's high-performance mobile DRAM product, the LPDDR5T, will range from 16 gigabytes to 24 gigabytes.
Concerning DRAM, demand for the HBM3E will expand as it is on track for mass production this year. Supply will begin in the first half of the year. The company has initiated the development of the next-generation product, HBM4.
Furthermore, other AI-related memory products that are underway include the new high-performance server module MCRDIMM and mobile module LPCAMM2.
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Key Takeaways
Surging Demand in Flash and HDD Markets Drives Up Average Selling Prices
Rebounding demand in Flash and HDD markets led to an increase in average selling prices. Consumer demand trended towards seasonal strength in Flash bit shipments. In particular, the WD Black gaming SSDs achieved record revenue due to demand for improved performance, more efficient storage, and enhanced gaming experiences.
Furthermore, revenue in the cloud end market returned to sequential growth for the first time in six quarters. The cloud computing industry drove demand for NAND products higher, which was evidenced by the uptick in bit shipments throughout Q4.
Refresh Cycle to Accelerate Growth Across PC, Smartphone, and Gaming
Wafer equipment spending is anticipated to remain at historic lows in the near term, causing Flash to be undersupplied for an extended period of time. Average selling prices will continue rising and will be the primary revenue growth driver throughout the calendar year.
The second wave of generative AI-driven storage deployments is expected to spark a client and consumer device refresh cycle. This will reaccelerate content growth in PC, smartphone, gaming, and consumer in the coming years. The company plans to lead the transition to QLC Flash as they continue to ramp an array of QLC-based client SSDs.
HDD is also expected to grow in 2024. Western Digital products will ride the wave of this demand by providing the highest capacity drives for mass market deployment. The company’s portfolio strategy focuses on providing the most innovative technology possible, while also enabling the most optimal total cost of ownership for cloud customers.
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Key Takeaways
Navigating Market Volatility: Intel’s Q4 Performance Unveiled
Intel's gaming and commercial segment performance remained strong throughout Q4 as notebook shipments and customer inventory levels normalized. Market demand for mobile, server, and desktop CPUs were steady from November through December despite rising CPU prices influencing customers' buying behavior. EOL notices for series like the Cascade Lake and Cascade Lake R resulted in unstable lead times, adding pressure to market demand as buyers hesitated to invest in bulk orders because of rising costs.
With server demand holding firm, revenue grew by double digits. However, this was offset by FPGA inventory corrections, leading to modest sequential growth for the Data Center and AI business.
Positive Market Signals: Intel’s Confidence Amidst Persistent Headwinds
Persistent headwinds from capacity utilization are forecasted to impact revenue. In addition, telecommunication markets are likely to remain weak throughout the year. Seasonal trends will also affect Intel's core product business, with material inventory corrections influencing demand within the company's Mobileye and Programmable Solutions groups. Growth in CPU compute cores is forecasted to return to normal following the period of strength in Q4, which may cause data center revenue to dip.
Despite these headwinds, market signals are positive for PC demand and usage rates. Intel is confident that most of the market will continue to utilize Granite Rapids-type P-core products in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, forecasts indicate a steady rise in the use of Sierra Forests and significant demand for Clearwater Forest in 2025. Demand will be split between cloud and data center customers.
Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids: Intel’s Upcoming Offerings
The improvements that Intel has made in its execution have strengthened its product portfolio overall, as the company noted that the Gen 4 and Gen 5 Xeon are ramping well. Arrow Lake, the company's lead Intel 20A vehicle, will launch this year. Intel 18A is expected to achieve manufacturing readiness in the second half of 2024, completing its “five nodes in four-years” goal. Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids will be coming soon, and Clearwater Forest is already going into fab. Panther Lake for clients will be heading into fab shortly.
Manufacturing Independence: Intel’s Strategy Amidst Intensifying Competition
The company made significant progress in its technology roadmap throughout 2023. Included in this was the milestone of becoming the world's first high-volume manufacturer of logic devices using EUV. Intel is working closely with ASML to use high-NA EUV equipment for the mass production of chips in the coming years. As the competition surrounding domestic production of electronic components intensifies, strategies to increase semiconductor sovereignty may make the difference in maintaining market share.
Intel also became the industry's first to have incorporated gate-all-around and backside power delivery in a single process node.
The company also focused on tactical relationships as it continues to build its foundry ecosystem with capacity expansion. In 2023 alone, Intel secured more than 40 strategic partnerships, including cloud-based customers, that will be integral to Intel's plans for expanding its AI business. They also secured business partnerships with U.S. military, aerospace, and government technology leaders.
In addition, Intel closed an agreement with United Microcontroller (UMC) to develop a 12-nanometer process platform for high-growth markets like mobile communication infrastructure and networking.
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Key Takeaways
Automotive Shines in Q4 as Challenges Persist for Personal Electronics and Industrial Markets
Demand remained strong in the automotive sector despite a softer growth rate. Although customer order bookings decreased QOQ, STM's backlog for the year remains robust coming out of 2023.
Revenue results in personal electronics were flat after a challenging year of declining demand. However, the demand for communication equipment stayed steady, and the radiofrequency communication business delivered strong results.
While industrial revenue did not deteriorate, falling demand from industrial customers had a trickle-down effect on STM's Microcontroller (MCU) and Digital IC Group (MDG), mainly impacting the company's general-purpose microcontroller business. Yearly, industrial demand for power and energy, factory automation, robotics, and industrial infrastructure was strong. But these segments progressively weakened by the end of Q3, which persisted in Q4.
Automotive to Maintain Momentum While Computer Peripherals Improves By Q2
Automotive will grow, with inventory corrections limited to ADAS verticals. Outside of the developments in automotive, most of the positive trends for STM's other verticals will take shape in the second half of the year. Inventory corrections will be a significant headwind for industrial customers, but STM believes the excess inventory situation will stabilize following Q2.
Additionally, computer peripherals are estimated to drive sequential revenue growth in the second half of 2024.
Silicon Carbide and AI Drive Innovation Cycles
Demand for software-defined vehicle architectures and electrification systems supported design win momentum for automotive microcontrollers (MCUs), which STM is continuously investing in. Furthermore, STM is also advancing its silicon carbide (SiC) vertical integration strategy, as production began in the company's new manufacturing facility in Catania.
STM also capitalized on the demand for AI by carving out a niche in Edge-AI and announcing microcontrollers, microprocessors, and smart sensors specifically designed for Edge-AI applications. This announcement included the world's first microcontroller Edge-AI Developer Cloud.
Sensors for industrial applications are also in development, with advancements in industrial robotics and embedded vision applications.
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Key Takeaways
Inside Seagate’s Moderate Q4 Rebound: Insights into Cloud Market and Inventory Trends
Activity in the consumer market increased, leading to healthy demand for legacy products and consumer drives. This was partially offset by a decline in Video, Image, and Analytics (VIA) market sales, which was projected as Seagate forecasted in its Q3 earnings call.
Overall, the cloud market stood out for Seagate’s earnings as cloud nearline demand improved in Q4. This was driven by a gradual recovery in the U.S. as customers have reportedly digest their excess inventory. End market behavior consequently stabilized, especially amongst enterprise OEMs.
This rebound in activity was less pronounced in China, but average capacity per nearline drive continued to increase sequentially thanks to cloud customers in the APAC region. Mass capacity HDD shipments were relatively flat QOQ, but shipments of 65 exabytes noticeably improved amongst both the APAC and Americas regions.
Inventory corrections have also improved, if not cleared up, for hyperscalers and communication service providers. However, the consumption rate for hyperscalers is not what it was two years ago, so demand has not recovered as quickly as it has in the past. There are still pockets of concentrated time-sensitive demand, mainly from customers entering replacement cycles.
Replacement Cycles and Expanding IT Budgets Buoy Q1 Results Amidst Seasonal Declines
Macroeconomic concerns remain a challenge for Seagate and its competition, but IT hardware budgets are forecasted to improve modestly in 2024. This, combined with the concentrated demand stemming from customers entering replacement cycles, will be key demand drivers in Q1 and throughout 2024. Seagate also forecasts incremental improvements in mass capacity demand from cloud and enterprise customers.
Seasonal declines are estimated in Q1, but stagnant demand in China should pick up after the Lunar New Year. In the interim, the demand for legacy products and Video, Image, and Analytics (VIA) demand will decline.
Introducing Mozaic: The Next Innovation for Mass Capacity Storage
Seagate recently launched its Mozaic platform, which allows the company to extend its areal density leadership. In simple terms, increasing areal density allows data center operators to store more data in one space. This allows them to save on costs and scale storage capacity.
Dave Mosely, Seagate's Chief Executive Officer, had the following to say about the new program.
“Starting at 3 terabytes per disk, Mozaic delivers a quantum leap forward in areal density innovation with a well-defined path that extends to 5 terabytes per disc and beyond.”
Seagate plans to complete qualifications with a majority of U.S. hyperscalers and several global cloud customers within the year. Underutilization costs are expected to increase marginally over the next few quarters as the company transitions production lines to support Mozaic. Despite this headwind, Seagate expects to see margin expansion thanks to nearline demand improvements.
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Key Takeaways
Weak Demand Impacts All Verticals except Enterprise Systems
It was a challenging quarter for TI, as almost every end market recorded a dip in revenue. The low single-digit growth in enterprise systems was not enough to offset the weakness in industrial, automotive, personal electronics, and communications. Automotive, in particular, suffered from customers working through inventory corrections.
Furthermore, headwinds from higher manufacturing costs, investments in capacity expansion, and reduced factory loadings contributed to the YOY decline in gross profits.
TI Places Hopes on Long-Term Outlook as the Short-Term Appears Troublesome
Both industrial and automotive end markets are expected to be weak in Q1 due to excess supply impacting customers. However, long-term demand forecasts are optimistic as TI noted that industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technologies to make their end products more reliable, affordable, and lower in power.
These demand trends have resulted in and will continue to result in, growing chip content per application, which will drive faster growth compared to TI’s personal electronic, communications, and enterprise markets.
Material Constraints Impact Analog Production
Embedded products had a significantly better year than analog products, as early strength in industrial and automotive sustained revenue for a longer period of time. Analog did not have this support and suffered further from material constraints impacting production. While embedded has traditionally relied on foundry wafer supply, TI will be transitioning to more wafers being produced internally. The company hopes that this will close the gap between the two product categories.
Furthermore, TI noted that many competitors have adopted non-cancellable, non-returnable order processes, adding to the difficulty in judging actual end-market demand. Because TI did not adopt this strategy, the company believes it has a clearer picture of the supply chain landscape and is better prepared to navigate fluctuations.
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Key Takeaways
HPC, Smartphone, and Automotive Take the Lead in Q4 Revenue Results
Quarterly demand was strong for high-performance computing (HPC), smartphone, and automotive verticals as all three saw revenue increase. Meanwhile, revenue decreased for IoT and data communication equipment (DCE).
TSMC noted a much higher level of customer interest and engagement for N2, compared with N3 at a similar stage, from HPC and smartphone applications. While 16-nanometer technology and more advanced nodes continue to make up most of TSMC's revenue, 28-nanometer has supposedly become a 'sweet spot' for embedded memory applications, which is beginning to drive more robust demand.
Semiconductor Market to Return to Growth in 2024
There are concerns regarding industry-wide oversupply for mature node technology due to the capacity currently being built. However, TSMC highlights its specialty technology's strong differentiators from the competition.
Now that 2024 is in full swing, outlooks indicate that the semiconductor market will return to growth. This excludes the memory market, as TSMC hesitates to forecast demand in this area since trends are still unfolding. 3-nanometer revenue is forecasted to triple in 2024 thanks to demand for smartphone and HPC applications.
In addition, AI is now a significant driver for future growth as AI models will need to be supported by more powerful semiconductor hardware. This need will require the kind of advanced semiconductor process technologies on which TSMC has built its reputation.
Utilization Rates Expected to Rise in 2024
Despite a lower revenue base in 2023, TSMC continues to expand research and development in its 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer technology, primarily due to the strong demand outlooks. Utilization rates will expand in 2024, and TSMC has implemented a strategy to allow N3 capacity to be supported by N5 tools. The conversion will occur in the second half of 2024, further diluting gross margins by 1 to 2 percentage points.
N3 successfully entered volume production with a substantial ramp in the second half of 2023. N3E further leveraged the firm foundation of N3 to extend the N3 family with enhanced performance, power, and yield. N3E entered volume production in the fourth quarter of 2023.
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