The Greensheet | September 2026
Market Volatility Index
September conditions are differentiated rather than uniformly tight. Public supplier disclosures continue to signal strong demand for AI compute, networking and associated data-centre infrastructure. At the same time, September spot activity shows selective cooling in DDR5 and NAND. The practical distinction for sourcing teams is between contract-channel allocation for qualified, high-density infrastructure components and short-term spot movement in mainstream parts.
|
Indicator |
Aug 2026 |
September 2026 |
Next 30–60 Days |
MoM |
Risk |
Intelligence Context |
|
AI GPU / accelerator platforms |
10 / 10 |
10 / 10 |
10 / 10 |
→ |
Critical |
NVIDIA’s $89.0bn Q2 data-centre revenue and Q3 guide support continued demand pull through the rack supply chain. |
|
Advanced packaging / leading-edge foundry |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
→ |
Critical |
TSMC’s August revenue was +53.3% YoY; allocation remains programme- and customer-specific. |
|
HBM / high-density DDR5 RDIMM |
10 / 10 |
10 / 10 |
10 / 10 |
→ |
Critical |
Historic-low DRAM inventories and server-directed supply continue to limit availability. |
|
Enterprise SSD / high-density QLC NAND |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
→ |
Critical |
Enterprise SSD supplier revenue reached $37.59bn in Q2; demand is expected to remain elevated in Q3. |
|
800G / 1.6T optics and switch silicon |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
10 / 10 |
↑ |
Critical |
Broadcom and Marvell both point to continuing AI networking and connectivity momentum. |
|
High-density NOR (≥256Mb / Octal SPI) |
8 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
9 / 10 |
↑ |
Elevated |
TrendForce expects higher-capacity NOR supply/demand imbalance to persist through 2H26. |
|
Automotive / industrial discretes by COO |
8 / 10 |
8 / 10 |
8 / 10 |
→ |
Elevated |
Nexperia’s legal and corporate separation remains a regional qualification and continuity issue, not a uniform stockout. |
September 2026: The components most likely to delay an AI deployment if sourced independently
|
AI Infrastructure Component |
September Supply Status |
Price Direction |
Primary Constraint |
Procurement Priority |
|
HBM / stacked memory |
Allocation Only |
↑↑↑ |
Memory allocation increasingly tied to long-term agreements and AI platform demand. |
Validate 2027 demand now; do not rely on spot substitution. |
|
Advanced GPUs / accelerator platforms |
Allocation Only |
↑↑↑ |
Platform and rack scheduling; leading-edge foundry and advanced-package dependence. |
Secure programme-level allocation, networking and memory simultaneously. |
|
Advanced packaging ecosystem |
Capacity Constrained |
↑↑ |
High-value AI compute programmes remain the capacity priority. |
Treat package availability as a critical-path gate for custom compute. |
|
800G / 1.6T optics and switching |
Constrained |
↑↑ |
AI fabric build-outs; silicon photonics, DSP, optical engines and switch silicon. |
Book complete fabric BOMs; avoid buying optics as a late-stage line item. |
|
DDR5 RDIMMs / server memory |
Critical |
↑↑ |
Low inventory; incremental supply directed to server applications. |
Reserve configuration-level capacity and maintain qualified density alternatives. |
|
High-capacity enterprise SSDs |
Allocation Only |
↑↑ |
PCIe 5.0, QLC and high-capacity demand from CSP expansion. |
Forecast capacity mix early; approve controller/NAND alternatives before shortage escalation. |
- Texas Instruments is enforcing new pricing on already-open purchase orders regardless of original order date, with lead times for TPS and SN74 series products continuing to extend. Current-sensor MPNs in the TMCS series are facing acute line-down shortages, with at least one customer offering a premium of over 300% above standard project cost to secure any available stock.
- Analog Devices lead times for op-amp, D/A converter and reference-IC families, including AD5545BRUZ, AD8672ARMZ and ADR435ARMZ have reached 60–70 weeks and are still climbing; a customer coalition including Horiba, KLA, LAM and TSMC met directly with ADI leadership seeking additional allocation but received no meaningful relief, as the constraint is structural on mature/legacy nodes.
- STMicroelectronics has reportedly cancelled current backlog at its Korean branch without notice, shifting to a quarterly allocation model beginning Q1 2027. Renesas and ADI are flagged internally as the next manufacturers expected to face similar issues
- Altera/Intel FPGA lead times have extended to roughly 60 weeks, with customers being asked to submit forecasts through 2028. Cyclone IV/V families face raw-material constraints and pull-in-request fees, while Xilinx XC7-series lead times have reached 18+ months for at least one industrial account.
- Lattice FPGA lead times have extended to 32–40+ weeks industrially, with at least one customer asked to buffer a full year's forecast quantity to secure production continuity.
- Skyworks has reportedly closed a diode production line and is exiting portions of that product line for 2027 without transition support, while Vishay has issued a MOSFET decommit (SIB452DK-T1-GE3) tied to fab overbooking, pushing new deliveries into late 2027.
- AMD server CPU (Genoa/Turin) pricing is moving to standard run-rate levels after the National Day holiday, with special pricing reserved for large key accounts; a separate distributor update confirms an official AMD server CPU price increase effective October 15, with the exact percentage still unannounced.
- AMD has reduced quoted lead times from 20 weeks to 12 weeks (up to 16 weeks for P/F SKUs) following direct customer engagement, though a further Q4 2026 price increase is expected to be announced in the final days of September.
- Intel's latest supply guide shows Alder Lake (12th gen) now EOL, Raptor Lake Refresh i7/i9 healthy but other SKUs tight, and Arrow Lake/Arrow Lake Refresh tight through Q4. The 10nm shortage continues through Q3'26 and Granite Rapids (Xeon 6) demand continues to exceed supply, with a first expedited batch arriving by end of September and a second in December.
- Intel server CPU lead times of roughly 50 weeks were cited by at least one embedded/industrial account as their most serious current sourcing bottleneck.
- NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 lead times have been confirmed at Q2 2027 for at least one enterprise account; separately, NVIDIA has communicated informal pricing increases of 20–50% across different product series (no official notice issued) and is asking distributors to gauge end-customer demand for the newer RTX Spark product ahead of an October launch.
- Samsung and SK Hynix have each told at least one major account they can supply only roughly 10–20% of combined 2027 board-memory demand (DDR3/DDR4/LPDDR4x/LPDDR5x), while Micron has raised RDIMM (96GB/128GB) pricing 15–25% in September with further increases expected in October.
- Direct Samsung Q3 RDIMM pricing has reached $928 (32GB), $1,632 (64GB), $2,628 (96GB), $3,754 (128GB) and $7,883 (256GB), with allocation to non-hyperscale accounts limited to roughly 2,000–3,000 units per month even at the higher densities.
- Micron DDR3 book pricing has increased roughly 50% (MT41K256M16TW-107 to $18), with DDR4 and LPDDR4 up 10%. Micron has also signaled zero allocation on industrial DDR4 to at least one networking account, prompting large-volume pre-buys (50,000–100,000+ units) from at least one enterprise account anticipating a 2027 delivery warning.
- eMMC allocation for industrial and automotive customers continues to deteriorate, with ISSI reporting no support on 8Gb eMMC through 2027 for at least one Tier 1 account. Kioxia has begun construction of a new NAND fab (Fab 3, Kitakami, Japan) with SanDisk and Japanese government support, targeted to begin operations in 2029.
- A memory-market analysis circulating among customers indicates all three major DRAM suppliers have reduced 2026 HBM support to redirect 8–9Eb of capacity toward high-margin server DRAM, with Q3'26 64GB DDR5 pricing tiered from roughly $1,300–$1,500 for top-volume hyperscale accounts up to $1,700–$1,900 for smaller-volume customers.
- Solidigm has reportedly booked its high-capacity enterprise SSD supply through 2027 entirely to hyperscalers and plans to increase high-capacity production 40% for 2027 while reducing smaller-capacity output. SanDisk separately confirmed roughly two-thirds of its FY28 supply is already sold, with no negotiating flexibility on remaining inventory.
- Enterprise SSD pricing rose 28–29% QoQ in Q3'26 to an average of roughly $0.503/GB, led by Kioxia (+31–33%) and Samsung (+28–31%), while Micron's SATA and U.2 SSD series rose 20% and 10% respectively, the shortage is expected to persist at roughly 7–8% short for full-year 2026 and into Q3'27.
- Seagate has raised Skyhawk HDD pricing 5–10% and large-capacity (16TB+) enterprise HDD pricing roughly 10% effective September 11, separately, 24TB channel pricing has risen from roughly $700 to $1,150 since July, and at least one hyperscaler has reportedly purchased all available 30TB HDD supply for 2027.
- Western Digital has implemented a bid-based allocation model for customers without a long-term agreement, awarding new supply to the highest per-TB bid, while Toshiba has flagged a further ~$10/unit increase on client HDDs and roughly 10% on high-capacity (20–24TB) enterprise HDDs next quarter.
- Foxconn has confirmed 441-day lead times for 1.6TB optical transceivers destined for NVIDIA Rubin server builds, with the resulting shortage pushing some forecasted 128GB DDR5-6400 DIMM demand for B300 air-cooled servers out as well.
- Mellanox/NVIDIA transceiver shortages tied to optical lens, substrate and driver constraints have pushed lead times past 50 weeks on some SKUs, with at least one large neocloud account reporting an order placed in April (originally due July) now pushed to March 2027
- Mellanox 200G/400G ConnectX-7 NICs are expected to enter shortage in early 2027 on demand upside, while Broadcom NIC card supply an increasingly used alternative is only confirmed through mid-January for at least one account.
- Murata has announced discontinuation of select MLCC series (GRM, GRJ, GRT, GXM, GXT, GCM, GCJ, GCG, ZRA) spanning consumer, automotive and RF grades under a FY2026 product-line optimization plan. last order date is March 31, 2028, with final shipments through March 31, 2029.
- Kyocera have instructed distributors globally to stop quoting to resellers until further notice; Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expected to raise MLCC pricing again October 1 while cutting September shipments/allocations roughly 20%, affecting an estimated 85% of its customer and distributor base.
- Yageo's high-capacitance MLCC products are reportedly being allocated on a bidding basis, and Yageo's automotive-grade AC-series resistors are set to rise 25% effective September; Kemet has raised pricing in back-to-back weeks, and Taiyo Yuden is not yet accepting new orders on some lines.
- Diodes Inc. lead times have extended past 40 weeks for high-runner automotive parts at a Tier 1 account, and UCC-brand aluminum electrolytic capacitor supply is reportedly constrained at 140% of stated capacity.
Hottest MPNs
|
Part Number |
Manufacturer |
Product Type |
|
THGAMVG8T13BAIL |
Kioxia |
NAND / eMMC flash |
|
100-000001523 |
AMD |
EPYC 9555P server CPU |
|
900-2G153-0000-000 |
NVIDIA |
RTX PRO 6000 professional GPU |
|
MZ7L3960HCJR-00A07 |
Samsung |
PM893 960GB server SSD |
|
MT41K256M16TW-107 |
Micron |
4Gb DDR3L discrete DRAM |
|
MCX755106AS-HEAT |
Mellanox |
Network interface card |
|
AD8672ARMZ-REEL |
Analog Devices |
Op-amp / instrumentation amp |
|
MZVL8512HFLU-00B07 |
Samsung |
Consumer solid state drive |
Priority Manufacturer Watchlist
|
Manufacturer |
September Development |
Supply / Sourcing Implication |
Action |
|
NVIDIA |
Q2 FY2027 data-centre revenue reached $89.0bn; Q3 revenue guidance is $108.0bn ±2%. Vera Rubin is ramping at partner sites. [1] |
Compute demand remains a pull-through driver for HBM, networking, optical, power and storage—not only GPUs. |
Secure complete rack and fabric BOMs, not accelerator allocation in isolation. |
|
TSMC |
August 2026 revenue reached NT$514.81bn, +10.1% MoM and +53.3% YoY. [2] |
Sustained leading-edge demand keeps advanced packaging and customer-priority allocation as key programme variables. |
Confirm package path, wafer node and substrate dependencies during design and forecast reviews. |
|
Broadcom |
Q3 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7bn, +54% QoQ; Q4 AI revenue guidance is $21.7bn. [3] |
Switch, custom accelerator and connectivity supply chains remain exposed to concentrated hyperscaler demand. |
Pre-commit high-radix networking silicon and qualified alternatives where the architecture allows. |
|
Marvell |
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $2.739bn; data-centre revenue grew 46% YoY. The company cites robust AI-related bookings. [4] |
Optical DSP, connectivity and custom data-centre components require earlier programme visibility. |
Bring optical and connectivity sourcing into the initial build plan. |
|
Nexperia |
Q2 revenue improved 18.4% sequentially; the group continues capacity and supply-chain stabilisation. China entities remain legally and operationally separated from the group’s consolidated operations. [9] |
Risk is primarily qualification, country-of-origin and supply-route dependent; it should not be treated as a uniform line-stop risk. |
Verify COO, date code, legal entity and customer acceptance before committing substitute stock. |
|
Infineon |
Infineon reported record AI-driven Q3 FY2026 sales and announced the planned sale of its NOR Flash and F-RAM business to Winbond, targeted for H2 2027 close. [10] |
AI power demand remains elevated. The NOR/F-RAM transaction is a continuity and PCN-monitoring issue rather than a near-term supply discontinuity. |
Create a continuity plan for affected NOR/F-RAM designs; protect qualified power-management supply. |
|
Lattice |
Q2 2026 revenue was $201.1m, +62.2% YoY; accelerating backlog and design wins supported 3Q FPGA revenue guidance of $210–230m. [11] |
Demand is expanding in control, management, communications and embedded applications. Risk is programme-specific rather than universal across the portfolio. |
Flag lifecycle-sensitive or security-control FPGAs for early allocation checks. |
Lead Times & Pricing
|
→ Stable / selective movement |
↑ Rising |
↑↑ Strongly rising |
↑↑↑ Critical |
|
Product (Sub-Category) |
Brand / Ecosystem |
Lead-Time Condition* |
Allocation |
Pricing Trend |
|
AI Compute & Networking |
||||
|
AI Accelerator Platforms |
NVIDIA / AMD |
Programme allocation; quote-specific |
Allocation Only |
↑↑↑ |
|
Advanced Packaging / Custom AI ASICs |
TSMC ecosystem |
Capacity-constrained; customer-specific |
Capacity Constrained |
↑↑ |
|
800G / 1.6T Optical Modules |
Optics ecosystem |
Extended; project allocation |
Constrained |
↑↑ |
|
High-Radix Switch / DPU / NIC Silicon |
Broadcom / NVIDIA / Marvell |
Extended; architecture-specific |
Constrained |
↑↑ |
|
Memory & Storage |
||||
|
HBM |
Samsung / SK hynix / Micron |
LTA / allocation-driven |
Allocation Only |
↑↑↑ |
|
DDR5 RDIMM — High Density |
Samsung / SK hynix / Micron |
Extended; allocation-specific |
Allocation Only |
↑↑ |
|
Enterprise PCIe 5.0 / High-Capacity SSD |
Samsung / Solidigm / Micron / Kioxia |
Extended; capacity mix dependent |
Constrained |
↑↑ |
|
Mainstream DDR5 / NAND Spot |
Major suppliers |
Variable; spot market more flexible |
Available / Selective |
→ / ↓ |
|
Embedded, Power & Industrial |
||||
|
NOR Flash ≥256Mb / Octal SPI |
Winbond / GigaDevice / MXIC |
Extended in high-density grades |
Constrained |
↑↑ |
|
Automotive / Industrial NOR & F-RAM |
Infineon / Winbond |
Product and qualification-specific |
Constrained |
↑ |
|
Power Management for AI / Data Centre |
Infineon / TI / onsemi |
Quote-specific; design dependent |
Constrained |
↑ |
|
Small-Signal Discretes |
Nexperia / onsemi / Vishay |
COO, manufacturer and qualification-specific |
Constrained / Segmented |
↑ |
|
Low- / Mid-Range FPGA |
Lattice / AMD / Intel |
Demand and lifecycle-specific |
Elevated |
↑ |
|
High-Reliability MLCC / Passives |
Murata / TDK / KEMET |
Application and qualification-specific |
Elevated |
↑ |
Commodity Risk Brief
|
Commodity / Supply Chain |
September Condition |
Price Signal |
What Has Changed |
Procurement Response |
|
HBM & high-density server DRAM |
Critical / Allocation Only |
↑↑ |
DRAM supplier inventory remains historically low and incremental supply is aimed at server applications; Q3 conventional DRAM contract price growth is forecast at 13–18% QoQ. [5] |
Treat allocation as a board-level condition. Reserve approved density and vendor alternatives before platform configuration is frozen. |
|
Enterprise SSD / high-density NAND |
Critical / Constrained |
↑↑ |
Enterprise SSD supplier revenue doubled QoQ in Q2, and TrendForce expects demand to remain elevated in Q3. [7] |
Secure high-capacity PCIe 5.0 / QLC configurations early. Do not extrapolate weak consumer NAND spot trading to enterprise availability. |
|
High-density NOR Flash |
Elevated / Supply Compression |
↑↑ |
High-capacity NOR is experiencing a persistent 2H26 supply/demand imbalance; 256Mb+ products are exposed to further price increases. [8] |
Qualify alternate density, package and vendor options now—especially for automotive, industrial and firmware-heavy systems. |
|
Optical / networking infrastructure |
Critical / Capacity Constrained |
↑↑ |
NVIDIA, Broadcom and Marvell disclosures indicate ongoing AI platform, networking and connectivity demand momentum. [1] [3] [4] |
Forecast optics, switch silicon, NICs/DPUs and cables as a linked fabric BOM. Sequence purchase orders against deployment milestones. |
|
Power, discretes & qualified legacy parts |
Elevated / Segmented |
↑ |
Demand is concentrated in AI-power and selected automotive/industrial programmes. For Nexperia, supply risk also varies by legal entity, COO and qualification. [9] [10] |
Segment by exact MPN, origin and end-customer acceptance; use alternates only after technical and regulatory validation. |
Regional sourcing lens
|
Region |
September Supply Signal |
Implication for Procurement |
|
US / North America |
AI deployment and CSP demand continue to shape allocations in memory, compute, networking and enterprise storage. |
Align supplier requests to deployment dates and end-customer visibility; generic spot requests have lower priority. |
|
Europe |
Nexperia-related exposure is principally a legal-entity, COO and qualification issue for automotive/industrial designs. |
Pre-clear accepted COO and alternative sources with quality and customer teams. |
|
China |
High-density memory and infrastructure demand remain allocation-led, while regional sourcing can introduce qualification or trade-compliance variables. |
Use traceable supply routes and validate part origin, export controls and end-use requirements. |
|
SEA |
EMS schedules are exposed to upstream allocation decisions even where finished-goods availability appears normal. |
Hold component-level commit dates and safety-stock decisions against build milestones. |
30-Day Procurement Actions
|
Priority |
Action Required in the Next 30 Days |
Why It Matters |
Owner |
|
1 |
Convert AI compute, networking, memory and SSD demand into a single allocation request by platform and deployment date. |
Component-by-component sourcing can produce stranded inventory when one constrained element blocks the rack. |
Procurement + Engineering |
|
2 |
Refresh all high-density DRAM, HBM, enterprise SSD and high-capacity NOR forecasts through 1H27. |
The constrained segment is contract/allocation-driven; confirmed forecast carries more weight than spot enquiries. |
Commodity Management |
|
3 |
Set a dedicated country-of-origin and qualification decision tree for Nexperia and discrete alternatives. |
The main exposure is continuity and acceptance, not simply physical availability. |
Quality + Supply Chain |
|
4 |
Trigger PCN, lifecycle and supplier-continuity review for Infineon NOR/F-RAM designs affected by the planned Winbond transaction. |
The targeted close is H2 2027, but continuity planning and second-source evaluation should begin before customer change windows. |
Engineering + Quality |
|
5 |
Differentiate contract pricing / allocation risk from spot-market movement in management reporting. |
Selective DDR5 and NAND spot softening does not offset allocation exposure for qualified server-grade components. [5] [6] |
Procurement Analytics |