The Greensheet | May 2026
Key Themes
- Memory Market Volatility Continues: DDR5 RDIMM spot pricing has shown increased volatility in May, with transaction activity concentrated in the $2,200–$2,400 range for 64GB modules. Early indicators suggest that this upward pricing trajectory may persist through May and June, as Q2 allocations tighten and hyperscaler LTA commitments absorb the remaining supply. Simultaneously, DDR4 is experiencing unexpected demand resurgence: 8Gb/16Gb pricing has surged 40–50% week-over-week
- Texas Instruments' Pricing Pressure Intensifies with July 1 Announcement: TI has issued formal notification of company-wide price increases effective July 1, 2026, with increases ranging from 10% to 85% across portfolios. Lead times for booking orders have been extended to 180 days, and stricter quotation protocols now require detailed end-customer data and project plans before pricing is released. The TPS, TLV, and LMR series are most impacted, with automotive and industrial customers reporting decommits and expedite fee requests.
- Nexperia Supply Chain Fragmentation Deepens with EU Sanctions Impact: EU sanctions on Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology (parent of MCC) have created secondary disruption as customers accelerate qualification of Nexperia alternatives. On Semi, Diodes Inc., and Infineon are absorbing overflow demand, but lead times for replacement parts have stretched to 40–52 weeks. Automotive Tier 1s report inability to secure allocation, with orders placed in late 2025 now pushed to late 2026. Authenticity verification protocols are adding 2–4 weeks to procurement cycles.
- Enterprise Storage Allocation Collapses for Non-Hyperscalers: Enterprise SSDs from Solidigm, Samsung, and Micron are seeing 50–90% Q/Q price increases with weekly price resets becoming standard. HDD capacity from Seagate and WD is reported 100% sold out for 2026, with agreements extending into 2028–2030. Manufacturers are aggressively EOL-ing low-capacity drives (1TB–4TB) to force migrations to higher-margin, higher-capacity SKUs, creating severe bottlenecks for traditional OEMs and channel partners.
Product Updates
Integrated Circuits
Price Hikes and Raw Material Bottlenecks
- Renesas is facing significant supply instability, with lead times stretching to 52+ weeks for power items (e.g., ISL99390FRZ). Price increases of 5–50% are expected, effective July 1, 2026. The divestment of its timing business has compounded uncertainty, driving widespread design-out activity across OEMs.
- Sony CMOS sensors: IMX series shortages impacting industrial and automotive segments, with specific MPNs at risk, including IMX250LLR, IMX178LQJ, IMX264LLR-C, IMX253LLR, and IMX546-AAQJ. A global shortage of glass substrate (Nittobo) is limiting production to ~70% of demand through 2027, with glass cloth capacity heavily prioritized for Nvidia AI server programs.
- Qorvo is facing acute shortages across Industrial and Automotive PMIC portfolios, with manufacturers reporting massive decommits and authorized distribution unable to cover demand. Spot market pricing is rising rapidly as multiple brokers compete for the limited available stock.
- STMicroelectronics power switch drivers are experiencing surging demand, particularly VN9D30Q100FTR, driven largely by high-volume requirements from the automotive market. Manufacturer production capacity is insufficient to meet automotive IC demand, resulting in extended lead times and allocation constraints.
- Texas Instruments issued a company-wide price increment notice effective July 1, 2026. The adjustment applies to all open orders and shipments, with increased rates varying by product family and MPN, ranging from 10–35% for most portfolios, and up to 85% for select legacy/power management families.
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All ICs
CPUs
Structural Shortages and Foundry Shifts
- Intel Server (Xeon) shortages persist, especially for 65xxx series processors (e.g., 6507P, 6515P), with lead times stretching to 4+ months. Granite Rapids series (6767P, 6776P) remains in extreme shortage, prompting some OEMs to pivot to AMD for more consistent supply and pricing.
- Intel's primary bottleneck is currently TSMC's capacity for compute chiplets. Specifically, Intel Lunar Lake (CU7/32) configurations have moved to "allocation" status and are expected to be out of stock by July.
- Intel embedded CPU lead times vary significantly by series: the x7 series official lead time is 26 weeks, while the x6 series is booked out to 2028.
- Intel Desktop & Mobile CPUs: Alder Lake (12th Gen) is EOL with limited manufacturer supply, driving elevated open-market pricing. Raptor Lake Refresh (14th Gen) and Arrow Lake (Ultra Series 2) remain supply-constrained through August. Mobile Lunar Lake and Meteor Lake are tight through Q3; Panther Lake (new U-series) shows improved availability for 12XE/4XE iGPU variants in H1, but other SKUs remain constrained.
- Small-Core CPUs: All N-series (N97/N100/N150/N305) and J-series (J6412) remain critically constrained through Q3.
- Server CPUs (DCAI): 10nm shortage persists through Q3 2026, impacting 4th/5th Gen Xeon supplies. Granite Rapids (Xeon 6) allocation is prioritized to U.S. regions, and all other customers require solid project justification to secure supply, with constraints expected through year-end.
- AMD Server (EPYC) Genoa and Turin series remain tightly allocated, with hyperscaler and AI-related demand continuing to absorb the majority of supply. High-core-count SKUs (including -F series frequency-optimized models) face extended lead times, with some customers reporting 12–16+ week official LTs and open-market premiums of ~$1K per unit. No meaningful easing in supply conditions has been observed.
- Intel portfolio-wide price increases, effective Q2 2026, range from 5–25% depending on the segment. Desktop entry processors (Alder Lake, Twin Lake) and legacy/embedded SKUs are seeing the steepest adjustments (~15–25%), while mainstream desktop/laptop/enterprise segments face more moderate increases (~5–10%).
- Intel Atom A39xx series has been notified for end-of-life, with the last order date October 15, 2026, and the last shipment date June 9, 2028.
- Intel Elkhart Lake small-core processors (J/N/X series) face severe allocation constraints, with some configurations officially booked out to 2028.
GPUs
Allocation Pull-Backs and Channel Disruptions
- NVIDIA Blackwell (RTX 6000 / 5090) server edition is seeing price hikes of ~25%, with some offers reaching $8,300–$9,360. Consumer RTX 5090 supply remains constrained by GDDR7 memory shortages; production is prioritized for higher-margin models.
- RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Server Edition is seeing a spike in demand from customers globally. Price expected to increase by 15% - 20%, with Lead times averaging 12+ weeks, and allocation is highly restricted. Distributors report no firm delivery schedules for workstation variants.
- NVIDIA RTX 4000/5000 Ada lead times remain extended (48–52 weeks), with production being curtailed to focus on Blackwell. NVIDIA is requiring the return of allocated inventory to fulfill hyperscaler orders, creating secondary market volatility.
- NVIDIA Jetson Modules has introduced updated part numbers for T5000 and T4000 modules to address acoustic noise issues. EOL notices for Jetson Nano (900-13448-0020-000) set the final forecast deadline for May 15, 2026, with the last ship date for January 15, 2027. Jetson TX2 NX (900-13636-0010-000) is also EOL with LTB of July 1, 2026.
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All GPUs
Memory
Dynamic Pricing and Allocation Collapse
- Samsung DDR5 RDIMM 64GB contract prices have jumped 75–125% Q/Q. Spot prices range from $2,300 to $3,000+. Hyperscalers are signing LTAs extending to 2030, effectively locking out traditional OEMs and automotive sectors until at least 2027.
- DDR4 8Gb/16Gb pricing has surged 40–50% week-over-week.
- LPDDR4/5 and eMMC automotive: Critical shortage for 8GB/16GB eMMC automotive grades. Samsung and Micron have largely stopped quoting, with lead times extending to 2027. Prices for legacy eMMC have tripled as production is deprioritized to maximize HBM3E/HBM4 output for AI accelerators.
- High demand for SanDisk low-density eMMC, especially SDINBDG4-8G-ZA2 and SDINBDA6-64G-ZA1. SanDisk reports 4–5x demand over supply on these items.
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All Memory
Storage
Sold Out Through 2028
- Enterprise SSD prices have increased 50–90% Q/Q. Solidigm and Samsung are implementing weekly price resets. Solidigm low-end SATA models face 50–60% increases; high-end SATA and all NVMe models face 80–90% increases.
- Solidigm D3-S4520/S4620 SATA SSDs face EOL notices with the last order date of September 30, 2026. Customers are seeking open market availability, leading to uptrending prices.
- Seagate and WD report HDD capacity 100% sold out for 2026, with some agreements extending into 2028–2030. Seagate is planning to EOL 1TB–5TB 2.5" BarraCuda drives. WD is refusing quotes for low-capacity drives, forcing migrations to 12TB+.
- WD high-capacity HDD (18TB–24TB) lead times are expected to range from 3 months to 54 weeks. Toshiba is unable to support 20TB+ models; lead times for 10–24TB drives stretch into Q2 2026.
- Micron NOR Flash supply is in short supply. Lead time stretched till 2H of 2026 as production capacity is limited.
Networking
EOL Waves and Switch Delays
- NVIDIA/Mellanox ConnectX-6 100G NICs lead times have extended to approximately 30 weeks, with increasing risk of delivery decommits as NVIDIA prioritizes ConnectX-8 production and migrates hyperscaler customers to next-generation platforms.
- Broadcom warns that current 52-week lead times are "just the start," with constraints tightening further in 2027 due to insufficient 3/5/7nm capacity. SS24/SS26 series switches face imminent shortages as AI infrastructure demand consumes capacity.
- Coherent (Finisar) has pushed lead times for 400G/800G transceivers out by 6 months, with some materials scheduled only into 2028. Production in Malaysia and China is actively limiting new orders.
- Export controls on H200s to China continue to create volatile spot markets for compliant interconnects like the MCX75310AAS-NEAT. Chinese distributors are on hold, stocking this model pending regulatory clarity.
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All Networking
Passives
The T-Glass Bottleneck
- MLCC shortages are anticipated, with lead times stretching to 16+ weeks. Murata's GRM185 series (Japan-only production) is expecting an H2 shortage due to AI server demand consuming capacity.
- Tantalum capacitor lead times exceed 40 weeks, and vendors are warning of potential discontinuities for low-margin lines. Panasonic and Kemet have announced 20–40% price increases effective May 2026.
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All Passives
Supply Chain Trends
- CXMT’s DDR5 Server Memories had Entered Mass Production and Delivery: The company recently achieved progress in DDR5 memory and has begun penetrating the domestic supply chain, helping Chinese module makers launch enterprise and consumer storage products based on locally produced DRAM chips.
- Samsung's Union Remained Committed to a Planned Strike: Samsung Electronics union is threatening an 18-day walkout starting May 21 unless compensation demands are met. The union estimates over 50,000 members would participate, with potential daily costs of ~$676M.
- Iran War Disrupts the Circuit Board Supply Chain, Raises Costs for Tech Firms: The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of crucial raw materials and pushed up prices of the printed circuit boards (PCBs) used in almost all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to AI servers.
Manufacturer News and Updates
- SMIC Leverages Process Flexibility to Capture Orders: SMIC is uniquely positioned to address this gap thanks to its high level of process compatibility. The company requires only "about 10% of additional dedicated equipment" to switch a production line to specialty memory, providing significant operational flexibility. [Source: Digitimes]
- Advantech Charts Five-Year Edge AI Roadmap: Advantech Co. announced a new five-year plan to become a leading brand for edge AI deployment, built around three priorities: integrating software and hardware platforms, digitizing the supply chain, and reorganizing the global sales structure. [Source: Taipei News]
- Flex to Spin off AI Sata-Center Infrastructure Unit into Listed Company: Contract manufacturer Flex (FLEX) is spinning off its Cloud and Power Infrastructure (CPI) unit into a separate, publicly traded company. The new entity will specialize in AI data-center power, cooling, and integrated systems. [Source: Reuters]