The Greensheet: March 2026

Key Themes

•  Intel 10nm Pricing & Supply Tightening: Intel is pushing double-digit price increases across its 10nm CPUs while tightening supply. Small-core chips remain constrained, with customers now required to provide 6-month forecasts for limited allocation. 
  
•  Storage Supply Constraints & Forced Transitions: Enterprise SSD supply is heavily restricted, with steep price increases and sub-30% allocations. HDD capacity is fully booked through 2026, while low-capacity drives are being phased out to drive upgrades. 
• Raw Material Shortages Expanding Risk: Helium disruptions and ongoing T-Glass shortages are extending lead times across ICs, FPGAs, and sensors beyond 40+ weeks. No meaningful relief is expected before 2027. 
• China Driving a Split Memory Market: Restricted access to advanced components is accelerating domestic sourcing in China. Lower-cost local alternatives are gaining traction, creating a fragmented, two-tier global market. 
• Channel Consolidation Reshaping Distribution: Suppliers are prioritizing hyperscalers and OEMs, cutting distributor access and reducing allocations. Mid-tier buyers are increasingly pushed to broker markets, driving volatility and limiting visibility. 

Product Updates

Integrated Circuits

• Analog Devices implements 15–30% portfolio-wide price increases effective February 1, 2026, with military-grade MPNs seeing ~30% hikes. Lead times for key op-amps (OPA series) now exceed 40 weeks due to backend capacity limits and T-Glass substrate shortages. Automotive customers report decommits during the CNY period.
• Texas Instruments signals significant price increases (15–85%) for new lead-time orders effective April 1, 2026. Lead times have extended to 180 days. TI is enforcing stricter quotation protocols, requiring detailed end-customer data and project plans before releasing pricing, effectively halting free-market purchasing.
• Infineon announces price increases effective April 1, 2026, across power IC portfolios. Lead times have doubled to 30–52 weeks as the company absorbs overflow demand from Nexperia. Wafer capacity constraints at the Le Shan, China, facility are exacerbating delays.
• Onsemi lead times have stretched to 40–52 weeks. Automotive customers report difficulty securing allocation, with orders placed in late 2025 now pushed to late 2026.
• Lattice Semiconductor lead times have exploded to 44–55 weeks (up from 8 weeks), driven by AI server demand consuming packaging capacity and glass fiber raw materials. Any orders requested with lead times under 44 weeks will be subject to expedited fees.
• Renesas lead times for power items (e.g., ISL99360FRZ-T) have stretched to 1 year due to Nvidia board demand consuming capacity. Price increases of 5–50% are expected effective July 1, 2026.
• Sony projects CMOS sensor IMX series shortages starting in April 2026, allocating only 10% to certain distributors. A global shortage of glass substrate (Nittobo) limits production to 70% of demand through 2027.

CPUs 

 Structural Shortages and Foundry Shifts 

• Intel confirms 12–20% price increases on Server CPUs (Sapphire Rapids, Emerald Rapids, Granite Rapids) effective March 29, 2026. SRV5F (6767P) and SRWPD (6776P) remain in extreme shortage, with lead times stretching into April. Embedded 10nm parts (Elkhart Lake, Raptor Lake-E) face allocations decommitted through 2027–2028.
• Intel small-core CPUs (Alder Lake-N: N97, N305, J6412/SRKUA) remain critically constrained, with March 2026 allocations already decommitted. Intel is deprioritizing low-margin SKUs to focus on Panther Lake/18A AI PC ramp.
• AMD Server (EPYC) Genoa and Turin series remain sold out through 2026. Booking lead times are uncertain, with specific high-core count SKUs (9555P, 9654P, 9454P) facing 8-month+ delays as AMD prioritizes hyperscaler AI projects.
• Intel Desktop CPU entry processors (Alder Lake, Twin Lake) face 25% increases; premium mobile (Panther Lake) 15%; desktop/laptop/enterprise 5–10%; legacy/embedded 10%.

GPUs

• NVIDIA RTX 6000 Blackwell Server Edition pricing has increased by ~25%. Consumer RTX 5090 supply remains constrained by GDDR7 memory shortages; production is prioritized for higher-margin models.
• NVIDIA RTX 4000/5000 Ada workstation GPU lead times remain extended (48–52 weeks), with production being curtailed to focus on Blackwell series.
• Jetson module pricing has increased by ~30%, with lead times extending to 24–26 weeks. Allocation is highly restricted, with distributors reporting no firm delivery schedules.

Networking

• Mellanox ConnectX-7 lead times have extended to 20–24 weeks (up from 2–4 weeks), with ConnectX-8 facing similar constraints. NVIDIA bundles CX8 NICs exclusively with GB-series GPUs, making standalone purchases nearly impossible.
• Broadcom warns that current 52-week lead times are "just the start," with constraints tightening further in 2027 due to insufficient 3/5/7nm capacity.
• Coherent (Finisar) has pushed lead times for 400G/800G transceivers out by 6 months, with some materials scheduled only into 2028. Production in Malaysia and China is actively limiting new orders.

Memory

• Winbond DDR3/DDR4 prices expected to increase in Q2. DDR4 16Gb pricing has surged from ~$2.3 (H1 2025) to $15+ currently.
• Critical shortage for Samsung and Micron 8GB/16GB eMMC automotive grades. Prices for legacy eMMC have tripled as production is deprioritized to maximize HBM3E/HBM4 output for AI accelerators.
• High demand for SanDisk low-density eMMC, especially SDINBDG4-8G-ZA2 and SDINBDA6-64G-ZA1. Sandisk reports 4–5x demand over supply on these items.
• Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are allocating <30% to automotive Tier 1s. Prices have surged 200–300% for automotive-grade LPDDR4 16Gb.

RDIMM

• DDR5 RDIMM 64GB contract prices have jumped 75–125% Q/Q. Spot prices range from $2,300 to $3,000+. Hyperscalers are signing LTAs extending to 2030, effectively locking out traditional OEMs and automotive sectors until at least 2027. 
• AI server demand drives an acute shortage of 96GB/128GB modules. Samsung's 96GB (Q-die) is slightly available, but 128GB remains extremely tight due to shared die constraints.
• DDR5 fulfillment rates have plummeted. Q1 pricing expected to rise 50–70%. Lead times for new orders average 54+ weeks.
• Micron is prioritizing HBM production (70% fulfillment rate), leaving DDR3/DDR4/DDR5 with only 30% fulfillment. DIMM lead times have extended to 40+ weeks.

SSD

• Enterprise SSD prices up 50–90% Q/Q, with Solidigm and Samsung implementing weekly price resets.
• Low-end SATA SSDs: +50–60%
• High-end SATA + NVMe SSDs: +80–90%
• QLC supply tightening as manufacturers shift capacity to TLC for margin improvement (impacting hyperscale storage).
• Micron NOR Flash shortages extending lead times into 2H 2026.
  

HDD

• Seagate and Western Digital (WD) report 100% capacity sold out for 2026, with some agreements extending into 2028–2030.
• Backorder pricing no longer honored.
• Low-capacity drives being phased out:
  • Seagate EOL: 1TB–5TB 2.5" BarraCuda
  • WD refusing quotes → pushing customers to 12TB+
• High-capacity HDD (18TB–24TB): lead times range 3 months to 54 weeks.
• Toshiba constrained on 20TB+, with 10–24TB lead times into Q3 2026.

Passives

• MLCC shortages are anticipated post-CNY, with lead times stretching to 16+ weeks. Tantalum capacitor lead times exceed 40 weeks, and vendors are warning of potential discontinuities for low-margin lines.
• Vishay MOSFETs (e.g., SQ2389CES) see 25-week lead times, with distributors reporting allocation cuts across resistors, capacitors, and discretes. Automotive customers are investigating potential wafer issues at Vishay.
• Panasonic announces significant Q1 2026 price hikes on POSCAP tantalum capacitors, with full capacity booked through the quarter. Lead times now exceed 28–32 weeks.

Supply Chain Trends 

• Aluminum, helium supply shortage weighs on Korean electronics industry: The shortage came amid growing concerns over supply disruptions following Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israel airstrikes. The strait is a key shipping route for oil and other major commodities, including aluminum and helium.
  
  

Manufacturer News and Updates 

• Samsung has reportedly won the contract to supply 12GB LPDDR5X memory for Apple's first foldable iPhone, scheduled for release in the second half of 2026. The agreement reflects tightening DRAM supply conditions, with LPDDR5X prices reportedly doubling compared to 2025 levels.

[Source:Digitimes]

• Applied Materials has partnered with memory chip companies Micron ​Technology and SK Hynix to develop next-generation chips that ‌are crucial for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. Micron and SK Hynix will serve as founding partners at Applied Materials' research center to develop the chips, called Equipment and Process Innovation and Commercialization, or EPIC, Center.

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